Watford's season relies on Imran Louza
Analysing why Watford are poor at progressing the ball and can't be a on ball dominant team
Long for the days of Etienne Capoue, Will Hughes, Almen Abdi, Abdoulaye Doucoure patrolling the midfield at Vicarage Road, shit, even the criminally underrated Ben Watson and Gianni Munari would be a godsend right now given how the current system and personnel are performing. Whether it be Rob Edwards or Slavan Bilic — both Head Coaches have gone from saying how balanced the squad is, and how excellent it is, to in a week for both of them saying the squad isn’t balanced and we have to be braver on the ball. But the reality is, Watford’s squad isn’t built do dominate games on a consistent basis, and if it is going to dominate the ball; it relies on Imran Louza being fit for the entirety of the season, who’s incidentally coming off the back of six months out with a knee injury. If all it takes is an injury to one player to flip your whole play style, it means the squad has been built badly — but we know this. Edwards and Bilic have both played a form of double pivot for Watford this season, and it categorically doesn’t work as both Choudhury and Kayembe aren’t comfortable in possession, neither is 90% of Watford’s centre backs — Cathcart is, and to some extent Hause, but both are injured a fair bit, leaving Kabasele, Sierralta, Pollock and Troost-Ekong to be distributors to start attacks, which is a nightmare in itself. Whilst Sierralta is secure in possession, he’s not capable of breaking the lines, and his body movement isn’t comfortable with carrying the ball into space. Kabasele and Ekong are more mobile, but the decision making whilst in possession is enough to scare John Wayne Gracey. Hause; whilst better in that regard, isn’t a ball playing defender, and hasn’t been a regular at his previous clubs because of that reason and hasn’t started more than 20 league games since the 16/17 season (!!!). Cathcart is genuinely in my view, an underrated ball player; and has been one of the best in the Championship this season; his downfall is communication and defensive mishaps; which is quite frequent these days — but again, another player who’s injured a fair bit each season.
Now to the midfield, which hasn’t been comfortable all season, unless they’re tasked with defending deep and keeping it simple — like games against Middlesbrough and Burnley. Two games in which Watford had 50% and 36% possession. The only time, in my view, Watford have looked somewhat a level above their opponent in midfield, was the moment Imran Louza was introduced in the 60th minute vs Stoke City; whilst Watford were winning the game 1-0, the overall gameplay was more or less even; but committing men forward on the counter, when an awful Stoke side misplaced a pass. But we shouldn’t be surprised that we’re struggling to progress the ball — Watford are 14/24 for progressive passes, 19/24 for progressive passing accuracy and 9/24 for passes per 90. To put it all into context; Watford have more of the ball, but the majority of it is in our own third — 54% of passes to be exact.
We’ve established, and we’ve seen from our own eyes that we’re a poor passing team — but what is the problem from a structural standpoint? it’s simple really. Both Kayembe and Choudhury (moreso Kayembe) hide from the ball and move into positions centrally, so they cut themselves off from receiving a pass. Which means two things, the centre backs have to go long straight away, play a risky pass into the 10, or play a pass to the wing/full back, they either lose it through a hopeless Masina esque pass down the line, or they pass back, and it becomes the dreaded U shape in which no progression is made, it’s passing for the sake of it, and we put ourselves under more pressure because the players aren’t happy, capable or confident enough to brave on the ball. Swansea came to Vicarage Road on Wednesday night, and Matt Grimes and their centre backs gave ours a footballing lesson, it was painful.
The only time either the midfielders want the ball, is when they’re free as a bird in deep areas, but it’s easy to play a long ball into space when you have all the time in the world to do so. It’s not their fault they aren’t suited to it, it’s down to recruitment and the style of Head Coaches Watford have appointed this season. Neither a variation of three at the back or 4231 suits the Watford squad because the 10 is disconnected from the rest of the XI, the centre backs aren’t comfortable passing from the back, along with the midfielders.
As I’ve already outlined — It’s not the players fault they can’t play this style of football, the squad is built for different things, we’ve got a Ferrari with Del Boy’s three wheeled van for an engine. Choudhury has always excelled as a ball winner, and Kayembe was moved to being a #10 at Eupen due to his inability to progress the ball, his stiff body movement in defensive moments, but has good ball striking technique, so scored from distance a fair bit.
The solution? Imran Louza. Our saviour in the abyss of shiteness. The only player in the squad that demands the ball, moves around into space so he can receive again. For example, Louza received the ball 14 times vs Swansea — Kayembe received the ball 16 times. Kayembe was on the pitch for 66 more minutes. If we can keep him fit and start 30+ games, we have a chance to win games comfortably off moments; similar to what happened under Xisco Munoz. Once Will Hughes came back and moved to a 433, we were a different team, and hit Bristol City for 6. The issue with that is, where do you play Joao Pedro? I’d be tempted to convert him to a more advanced 8 with Louza and one of Choudhury/another one in there. Joao is naturally a hard worker, so you could potentially get away with playing a lopsided 4231. But I do wonder if Watford have, well I feel like I know, Watford have completely misprofiled the players in the squad, and appointed two men in Edwards and Bilic who have a specific style that the players can’t play. Maybe the better and most logical appointment would have been Carlos Corberan. Bilic is good enough, and wise enough to adjust, albeit he didn’t against Swansea, bar a five-minute spell in which it worked by dropping Asprilla deeper. This isn’t on the Head Coach, this is on Gino Pozzo. If Watford don’t get promoted this season, he’s made it a failure, because that’s the intentions he’s put out there; even though in my opinion, we aren’t good enough for that. Let’s see what happens in the future, starting with Blackpool away tomorrow. Injury crisis, low on confidence — should be fun! Louza demanding the ball | Louza pass
Great read, as you say Louza staying fit is a must.
When he came on against Swansea he was looking for the ball, creating space Drawing players away.
our injury list isn't helping at the moment either .Dele Bashiro coming back is also welcome.