Watford vs Middlesbrough: Match Preview
The battle of the bastards but the bastards being set pieces and how bad both teams are at them. It's 24th vs 23rd and It's live.
Originally I wasn’t going to write a preview on this game because my main discussion point I did want to speak about was Watford’s build-up structure and how I think we need to slightly adjust, but with a game coming up I figured I could put that idea into theoretical match practise against a team who like Leeds will be good on the ball and look to dominate parts of the game. Today’s article I’ll look at:
Middlesbrough’s setup on/off the ball
Watford and what we need to change
Francisco Sierralta
Prediction how the game will play out
Let’s kick things off with Middlesbrough then. So far this season performances haven’t been good, they’ve dropped off massively compared to last season right across the board; which is to be expected when you lose the calibre of players (Giles, Ramsey, Akpom, Archer) — but they’re still better than what they’ve shown so far this season. Just solely looking at numbers, and I’ll delve into the eye test and what I’ve watched prior to writing this in a minute; from a pressing pov — Boro are dead last when it comes to buildup disruption percentage; effectively teams pass the ball better against them than they normally would, which is a structural problem but also by design as Carrick doesn’t want to be that intense off the ball. If you compare that to last season: Boro ranked 14th for BDP and 2nd/3rd for Gegenpressing intensity and efficiency. Having higher quality of player can make the other team change what they do but I think towards the back end of last season and the start of this season; teams have sussed out what Middlesbrough do; and whilst there is a subtle change in build-up, it’s still a variation of a 2-4-4 rather than a 3-2-5 which it kind of looked like last season but from watching them that felt like a player instruction rather than a tactical decision by the manager; there’s a clear difference between the two but that’s a another discussion for another article. I’m going to focus on their last game against Southampton as like I mentioned earlier, nothing has changed much throughout the season — slightly narrower in possession at times with Hackney dropping deeper to collect but it’s more or less the same build with players rotating (Jones, Crooks) and McGree moving inwards with O’Brien/Engel/Bangura offering the width on the left side.
I watched the entirety of the game against Southampton where even after going 1-0 down, they were by far the better team throughout. Every manager and coaching staff have different ideas when it comes to why they play a certain way but my interpretation as to why Carrick has this setup is to open up the pitch in central areas for McGree and Crooks to have time and space to get on the ball in the final third and thread balls into the striker or on running winger for cutbacks into the box. I also think it’s because both of those players are good at linking with the wider players in the team; especially one twos which they were so good at last season as it would drag players over and leave Akpom with all the time in the world to score a goal in and around the penalty box. Watford will have to look out for those slip passes down the sides of centre backs for the striker to get a good opportunity from; especially when Hackney drives forward and plays those bounce passes off Crooks to set a Coburn/Lath away. I touched on it earlier, but off the ball Boro are quite passive, they allow the centre backs to carry the ball forward and they allow you to play around the flanks in the final third, whilst they are quick at times to win the ball back high up the pitch when they lose the ball with men forward, they don’t get back into shape quick enough to stop good chances from happening in counter/transitional situations. You will get chances against this team, you will be able to create good shooting situations; especially down their right side. There’s no doubting Hackney’s brilliance on the ball, you should not give him time and space to dictate games as you’ll be punished more often than not; but off the ball he still needs work, the gaps he leaves and his fluidity when turning leaves a lot to be desired at times. Teams can hurt Middlesbrough and get clean shots off from outside the area; which isn’t unlucky, it’s a fundamental issue within teams structurally. Players at this level are capable of scoring low quality shots because their ball striking ability is very high.
Watford and what we need to adjust.
I’ve liked what we’re doing so far this season, the football is enjoyable to watch for the most part, the players at the bare minimum give a shit and you can see what we’re trying to do. There’s a but coming and here it is; BUT: I don’t like the way we’re building up and it’s quite easy to defend against simply because we only have one way of getting the ball to our more attacking players in Wesley Hoedt (60 progressive passes, 1st for Watford) and Imran Louza (47 progressive passes, 2nd for Watford) — whilst it’s good Louza is doing this, we don’t actually want him coming deep if we’re going to play this midfield because we need him in the final third creating chances; which he does, but he has too much to do and that’s because Sierralta can’t do it. No midfielder that’s started more than half of the games this season has progressed the ball fewer times, carried it fewer times, dribbled fewer times than Sierralta; he’s a huge issue for us.
I’m not saying Sierralta should be dropped — my solution would be to change to a 3-5-2 outright but keep the same principles. If you look at our squad, we really only have one ‘winger’ in Ken Sema (more on him later) as Martins likes to operate inside and get shots off on the edge of the box. Ince got player of the season for Reading playing in midfield, Asprilla is better there, all of his best passes have come from him dropping deeper and lasering it to an attacker.. think of Preston, Sunderland, Norwich, Swansea. Chakvetadze according to Georgian football watchers is better as an 8/10 too. It also allows us to use Healey more if we’ve got two options there now; my first choice would be Healey and Martins in a two but for now Rajovic over Healey. In terms of building, it gives us an advantage to have two players dropping deeper for the ball but allows the wingbacks to push on and have three players centrally to overload if we can get out of the first phase of play. Me personally I think it should be Louza and Tom Dele and then you can have Ince/Asprilla/Chakvedatze ahead. It also wouldn’t shock me if we see Sema being used as a central midfielder either; work-rate isn’t in question, he’s comfortable drifting wide and staying inside and gives you the physicality and passing ability (Coventry away) to effect teams in the final third. This also allows you to be adaptive in your formation too and go into a 3-4-3/4-4-2. It also alleviates our defensive troubles as we’ll have four back instead of two.
How the game will play out:
With Watford being at home I expect us to have more of the ball depending on game-state, but not by much; in the ball park of 55-45. However, stylistically I think this is a bad matchup for us if we continue to play the way we are. Simply because Boro’s buildup and finding space for their 8s to impose themselves on the game is very effective. If Carrick has seen us this season, he’s perhaps playing Rogers over Crooks or Lath over Coburn simply because we cannot deal with speed in transition; especially as we often leave Hoedt and Porteous exposed. On the flip-side of that I do expect us to make changes with Kayembe and Tom Dele coming into the midfield. Whilst I don’t like Kaymebe as the defensive midfielder; I am hoping he rotates with Louza as I do think there’s untapped potential with Kayembe being a more attack minded player. He’s got good close control, carrying and dribbling, also has a good shot on him too. He’s just very laboured and slow when passing the ball and you can’t have that in a side looking to sustain pressure and build from the back. We can hurt them in wide areas with Martins getting in between Hackney and Smith and using his close control/dribbling ability to commit and open up space for him to score. I’m not keen on this matchup for us but it should be a good game regardless.
