Watford the work in process

"In football, thinking about results or outcomes is not thinking about what needs to be done because the things that need to be done along the way will determine the outcome."

We’re seven games into the Championship season and Watford find themselves in 14th after two wins, three draws and two defeats; and to be brutally honest we should have at least two more wins to our name at the very minimum, because we’ve already had more good performances this season than the entirety of last season if you ask me. I think we’ve been operating at a top 8 level team so far, that’s not to say we will finish in that area of the table, it’s more so me suggesting I think we’re playing above the collective level. In this article I wanted to touch on a number of things that we’ve seen this season. From defending, build-up, pressing and finishing, to see what we look like, to see if the numbers match the eyes and to offer some solutions to get us into better goal scoring positions.

Defensively:

If you look at the numbers, we’ve faced the fewest shots (part of that will be because we hold onto possession a lot) and we’ve given up the fewest chances in terms of xGA (5.66) in the league. However, I wouldn’t say we’re defensively solid and I don’t think the way we’re doing it is sustainable. Yes the teams we’ve faced so far haven’t really got into good shooting positions and I do think the way we defend is by design to live on the more chaotic side; which is fine, but there will be a game that we’ll come undone IF we aren’t careful with the passes into midfield, or we lose the ball cheaply. The way we set-up puts the centre backs; Porteous and Hoedt in dangerous positions anyway, they’re not the best defenders in the first place so the risk is already there regardless. Quite a number of times this season we’ve left them both 1v1 with 3/4 attackers running at them, and they’ve either won or did enough to put them off or Bachmann has made a good save. In more or less every game this season — a situation like this below has happened but we’ve been lucky in not many times a shot has occurred.

But in fairness to us, we are really good at getting back into our shape very quickly. To emphasise how much our centre back pairing has to do, both of them rank inside the top 10 in the league for 1v1 challenges contested, with the next centre back on the list is down in 34th. So the only two centre backs in the entire league to consistently be tested 1v1 are at Watford. Whilst it is by design as I mentioned previously, one game it will go wrong and we could be on the end of a heavy defeat. The reason it happens is mainly because Sierralta is not good enough on the ball in those areas of the pitch; he looks at his first touch and he’s often a trigger press for opposition players to put him under pressure. Which is partly why we move our full backs centrally so there’s minimum four options for him in best case scenario.

Pressing:

As you’d expect, we’re a very good and intense pressing team. We’re not as mental as his Barnsley side, but we are very effective at pinning teams back and winning the ball back quickly. In terms of PPDA (passes per defensive action) Watford rank 3rd; Buildup disruption which measures how you effect the opposition’s pass completion rate to what their average is — Watford also rank 2nd. And finally in terms of counter-pressing; which is how quickly you win the ball back after losing it in the top 40% of the pitch, Watford rank 5th for intensity and 3rd for efficiency. The clear difference between this press and the press Ismael orchestrated at Barnsley and West Brom is that when the opposition has settled possession, we actually move into a 5-4-1 mid-block, which allows us to quickly shift to a 4-4-2 pressing shape depending on how the other team is set up. I don’t know for certain why Ismael has opted for a deeper defensive line than what he’s known for, but I’d assume it’s to do with not playing an outright back three and the pace of Porteous, Sierralta and Hoedt is well, to put it politely I’ve seen milk turn quicker.

Build-up:

Whether it be from goal kicks or the ball being recycled back to Bachmann — our shape can alter at times depending on what the other team are doing; for example the full backs will stay wide or one of them will come in centrally, but more often than not it’s a 3-3 build with the wingers stretching the pitch. So it’s Porteous — Bachmann — Hoedt with Sierralta in front and the right and left full backs moving inwards so they can overload the middle of the pitch but also try and create space for a quick pass down the flanks.

Watford build-up from goal kicks

Now the issue with this way of trying to build-up isn’t particularly wrong as the theory behind it does make sense, the problems arrive because the players trusted in this area of the pitch either aren’t comfortable yet in doing so or don’t have the quality/skillset to make quick decisions with pressure on them. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that our level of buildup play goes up when Lewis and Andrews come into the team. Their technical level raises the floor of the team and allows us to be less predictable as their interpretation of the role they’re doing is of a higher understanding than that of Morris and Ngakia. However, despite him doing a fine job so far, I do think Sierralta playing this role is a problem. Whilst we do sometimes rotate our midfielders in game; Kone will come deep, same with Louza or TDB — but doing that means we lose creation in the final third as well as potent and progressive passing. For example, only Rajovic, Bayo and Bachmann make fewer progressive passes than the Chilean. Whilst I appreciate others have said it’s not really his job and he does well at covering ground off the ball and putting fires out; we’re a team that averages 63% possession, we need him to be better if possible or look for a solution.

My solution would be to slightly change our structure on goal kicks and go to a 3-4 build. Mainly because it allows the full backs to stay wide and it gives us more opportunity to play around the opposition. If the opposition wants to press us deep into our half, not only does it create space down both sides of the pitch to quickly play into if possible but crucially the starting point of the ball at the centre backs; they can take out up to 4 opposition players. Usually it’s Hoedt who has the ball, so in my 3-4 set-up, if he’s being pressed; he can quickly knock it to Porteous who can play a one touch pass into one of the two central midfielders. If both centre backs are being pressed, that means you can play it into the midfield straight away and avoid pressure.

Maybe a switch to 3-4 could help?

Once you’ve evaded that first line of pressure, a lot more space opens up and it could mean our attackers; Martins especially can run at the defence and get his trademark cut inside shot off. Because if you look at us so far this season; whilst we’ve had the second most shots in the league, not many of them are of high enough quality; and whilst we do have players that are capable of scoring low quality chances, I’d like them to get into better areas to have consistent chances to score. With the 3-4 build from the back, you are able to create opportunities by design where you effectively create a transition for yourself to speed up the play and that’s exactly what Martins thrives on — his goals against Coventry and West Brom and when the tempo of the game quickened against Blackburn, he was excellent at exploring the space to get his shot off.

Need to get Martins into this position more

Sustained possession in the final third:

An underrated trait of a team is to be able to keep pressure on and wear teams down; almost like a boxer who’s told to focus on the body and then go for the kill later on in the rounds. Watford are very good at pinning teams in and recycling possession in and around the box, we also get a lot of touches in the box too; however as I mentioned earlier, we aren’t quick enough in our decision making yet, we’ve shown glimpses of moving it from one side of the pitch to another — Ince’s goal against West Brom, Rajovic’s first goal against Coventry. Quite often this season we’ve allowed teams to get back into shape or we’ve not played the right pass when space opens up. But I think that’ll come with better understanding of one another, more time on the training pitch and a few tweaks in how to get Rajovic better quality of shots at goal. I think it might be a case of going a bit more gung-ho with selection in midfield and maybe going with a trio of Kone/TDB — Louza — Chakvedatze.

Watford rank 2nd for final third possession and 6th for penalty box touches

Overall I’m really enjoying how Ismael and his coaching staff has Watford playing this season so far, it’s not perfect by any means, but you can see what the plan is, you can see players wanting to execute the plan and it’s enjoyable to watch when it clicks in moments. We’re not the elite of the league anymore, we’re squad wise a mid-table outfit with the potential to be more than sum of its parts. But the style of play and effort/attitude is translatable to getting more wins and points with better players when we bring them in, and most importantly everyone is here for the gradual build like Ismael and the stories say they are.