Watford in the final third is a huge concern
"The possession of the ball must not be confused with a sterile, therefore useless series of horizontal passes but rather be preparatory to the most effective and rapid verticalization." Thiago Motta.
Watford this season are doing what I perceive to be par for the course. A short flurry at getting into the playoffs as we have some players capable of performing at a higher level but mostly just your average Championship squad that will more or less be part of the furniture. That’s not to say teams can’t over achieve because they can, but I feel in order for Watford to do so, new owners and a fresh look at how to operate is the only way to do that as current conditions make it borderline impossible to get a sustained run going. I think Valérien Ismaël is doing a solid job and has eradicated some issues we’ve had for a good five or so seasons, but that’s not to say there’s no criticism of his play-style which can be at times a tough watch. I don’t think it’s a player personnel thing as I do believe we’ve got some really exciting players that should be given the licence and freedom to express themselves in the best way possible to showcase their talent. To an extent we are seeing that with Andrews and Koné, Kayembe is having his best season at the club to date as well. Despite these players at the club, there’s no denying the deep build-up and final third is and has been struggling all season, we’re very much a team that are reliant on wonder strikes from pretty much anyone at this point. It’s a double edged sword because it’s a good thing the coaching staff have drilled the idea that shooting from range will resort in goals, but it also hampers and highlights our lack of ideas to get our more attacking players on the ball in better positions of the pitch.
This season, from a performance pov, Watford have tended to perform and look better away from home or vs the better sides in the league not named Leeds United. But why is this? because there’s fewer time for settled possession and more impetus to be slightly more direct in passing or carrying into space. The squad is incredibly unbalanced positionally and qualitatively — there’s so much fluctuation between the starters and reserves or in some cases the starting XI. However, what this team does possess is dribbling and carrying ability; Asprilla, Koné, Kayembe, Chakvetadze, Andrews, Sema, Dele-Bashiru, Dennis and to some extent Martins.. are all better suited to having the ball in front of them and causing chaos. We also have one of the best passing defenders in the division in Wesley Hoedt who more or less carries the deep build-up as quite literally everything is based around his pass selection and ability to break the first line of press/lines. But this is where the issues arrive, because in settled possession as I like to call it, we’re exactly that, settled. We’re a very square football team when we have the ball, and when there’s static movement, there’s a lovely-but-predictable switch to the right flank. Team’s have worked out that if they go into a 442/532 shape to press Hoedt and the rest gradually move up and squeeze, we’ll more than likely have no answer for it, and if there is an answer, it’s a strike from distance. If this was a new thing I wouldn’t be too worried, but this has been the same pattern to a variation ever since the second game of the season.
Using the QPR away game as an example, as I think that game summed us up in a microcosm. In this game you saw the big issues we have, the best of us and then Jake Livermore bailing us out with two long range goals that helped manage to get the three points as again from a performance standpoint, QPR had higher levels than us that day and had more than enough chances to win the game if it wasn’t for the heroics of Ben Hamer, and not for the first time this season. The good news in my mind is I don’t think we’re “over-coached” I in fact think the opposite that we’re not coached enough. In my opinion, our issue is we’re so one dimensional when we have the ball that it’s easy for teams to pick us off and nullify our threat. There’s a common six passing sequence that we have and that’s Hamer - Hoedt - Lewis - Hoedt - Porteous - Hoedt - progressive attempt. The reason I believe we’re so stuck is because there isn’t any anticipation for the second or third pass, everyone is on their heels looking to occupy space rather than creating it. When you’re not watching the players with the ball, genuinely look at what a player does when the ball is passed into or near their territory, there’s more or less zero movement. Everything is in front of the opposition a majority of the time. And when you’ve got off the cuff moments from Asprilla or Chakvetadze to manoeuvre that spatial rotation, the next player isn’t expecting it.
As I mentioned earlier, I don’t believe this is a player issue or the squad at our disposal not being good enough to follow through these instructions. For the majority of the season, you can’t fault the work ethic or the desire of this team, so that again says to me this is something they’re told to do. In the screenshot above, there’s a clear way to progress the play with TDB coming into that space, Andrews offering the 1/2 and getting away in a quick sequence, but they don’t even look or attempt that. This is not a one off thing either, you can show this scenario in every game this season bar ironically, QPR at home when they were effectively operating as a bottom half League One side. Earlier on in the season, and pre season in fact, there was a sequence Watford did in pretty much every game up until Leeds away where positional rotations were evident with the full back moving centrally and one of the two 8s depending on which size the ball was travelling, would move into the wider zone. This rarely happens now and when it does, there’s still not anticipation for that second or third pass, it’s a very reactive way and baby steps way of playing football. There’s simple and simple simple in what we’re currently doing.
These are just two examples of about 30 screenshots and videos I’ve got of this game where singular action and square passes are the main pass selection for the majority of the game. In our most recent game vs Rotherham, we got nothing going forward because we’re so reliant on Hoedt to break the lines in central areas but because Rotherham just packed the middle and closed the gaps, on top of a striker who couldn’t pass water, the ball kept coming back, It’s not a sustainable way of playing. I know what Ismaël is trying to do with the 4-1-4-1 structure but what It creates is the dreaded U shape where the ball keeps getting recycled across the back line until someone has found space to receive the ball in the final third. It’s a never ending process that will eventually find it’s way though because the quality of team in the league and quality of players aren’t always good enough to keep it going for a set period of time of blocking the passing lanes. We’re a team built on precipitous movement which will always invite pressure onto the ball player or the player who’s set to receive the ball and it also creates problems for yourselves as the passing options are eliminated pretty quickly. Porteous is pretty standard on the ball and is a much better passer than Pollock and Sierralta, but not good enough to confidently rely on his selection or ability to get the ball where it needs to be. Similar to Hoedt, he too only has two passes, either a straight ball into midfield or a floater down the sides, there’s no sustainability to the way we build. It’s like a professional Madden player who’s not quite at the top level, he has roughly 3/4 offensive plays that sometimes work but anything outside of that and it’s panic stations.
Given you’ve got Wesley Hoedt in your backline, It makes sense to utilise his passing ability, but I think we’re not using it to it’s full effect. He’s got the temperament and differential of range to pass to pretty much any position on the field, even his crosses from deep are seriously good at times. Use him to quicken up the play, create sequences in which the run comes from wide over the top with Martins/Sema not needing to touch the ball in the process. I do think Val is tactically and strategically limited in this regard and hasn’t shown enough adaptability to get a better structure for the players to create better chances. If one player in your system (Rajovic) means you can’t play to your teams full strength then your original plan isn’t good enough anyway. I have no qualms about what we do out of possession, I actually think we’re very high risk and bold in our approach, It’s just the in possession that I think is holding us back as a team. That doesn’t mean he hasn’t done really good things, because he has, and I think him staying here and steadying the ship whilst calming down the noise surrounding Watford is progress in itself. But I can’t get away from this more or less six month problem we’ve had as a team in our incapability to start on the front foot, sustain it and not having to chase games, which by the nature of it, you’ll have more territory and pressure. I don’t think It’s a coincidence our end product/play improves and looks cleaner when Asprilla moves centrally. His instinct is always to get it, play it, carry on the run, look to receive. I’d like us to change our approach to a 4-2-3-1 and I’d like to see Giorgi start too in off the left because he’s another that has that natural instinct to move in zags and rotate, you need more of those players on the field — It would come at the expense of dropping Livermore, but I think with this season more or less over, and I know the club and coaching staff won’t see it that way, but I would like us to try something different because this approach hasn’t worked for quite some time.