Watford 3-0 Boro

The return of Rob Edward Gein.

Line-ups.

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Before going into this game, I was convinced Watford were going to sit deep and look to play on the counter for this game. It didn’t need a rocket scientist to figure out the game plan of that because that’s what a Javi Gracia side does, albeit there have been subtle tweaks to this 442 (4222) than the previous iteration that we saw in his first spell. Also, there is the Rob Edwards factor in this. His record when his teams have to properly dominate the ball is diabolical. In the last five seasons, when his side has dominated the ball, and when I say dominated, I mean actually dominating with 55% possession or more — his record is played 33, won 6, drawn 14 and lost 13. Scored 36 and conceded 52. To put into context those 6 wins — 5 of them came in cup games against lower league opposition in Gillingham, Wigan and the other 3 were against relegated Blackpool, 21st Cardiff and 24th Xisco Munoz’ Sheffield Wednesday. That isn’t a small sample size either, it’s 87% of a Premier League season. What do you think happened in this game then? Boro had 55% of the ball and lost 3-0.

Strategy.

Watford sat out their stool immediately. There was a few passes in the first two or so minutes but the want to get down the sides and hit immediately from second balls was clear. As soon as the ball was won back in our own third, a direct ball to either striker or Baah was the first thought process of any of the players who managed to win it back. Matt Targett must be having nightmares about playing at the Vic because Ismaila Sarr ripped him to pieces back in 21/22 when he played for Villa and was subsequently hooked at half time and then again in the game this weekend Baah had him on toast pretty much any time he went forward. There were two ways of how Watford did this. 1) Leaving Targett completely unmarked in the defensive shape and 2) leaving Baah high and wide when in possession so he’s isolated 1v1 at all times. You can always tell the intentions of a side when they turn the ball over. Do they immediately look to spring with players covering large distances or are they selective/get back into shape. Watford were the former and Middlesbrough were the latter. Boro also didn’t do their homework on us because they packed the middle of the pitch and left 2v1 (overlap or underlap) in wide areas. The shape was beautifully setup by Javi as both full backs moved inside to either be a bounce pass or the opportunity to double up on the flanks AND if caught with a dodgy pass, the safety net of having 6 players ready to run back or stop the ball at source was ready. As the Reverend Mother said in Dune II — we don’t hope, we plan. And that’s exactly what it felt like. One team hoped something would work and another team knew something would work.

Out of possession Watford couldn’t have made it more obvious in what they were doing. They knew Boro were coming with a midfield of Browne, Hackney and Morris and man marked them throughout the game and let Ayling have the ball and made sure to the best they can that the only passes that were on were in wide areas to both Brittain and Targett. It didn’t matter if any of the midfielders received the ball in deeper areas because it’s one fewer player in the final third and one extra man for Watford to defend with. Watford wanted both wingbacks of Boro to get higher and higher and more comfortable to cross the ball because there would be only two players max inside the box, being Tommy Conway and Delano Burgzorg, who’m neither had a hope in hell of getting their head on a cross or winning a duel vs Kyprianou, Pollock or Keben. To show how mental the game plan was from Rob Edwards. Delano Burgzorg has had 111 shots in the Championship. Only 1 with his head. Boro crossed the ball 28 times (11 Targett, 8 Brittain) which is more or less a cross every three minutes or so. Truly absurd stuff.

Only the elite of the elite can properly mask their body shape when passing a ball. Because Boro are so hellbent on trying to play through the lines centrally — it was more or less choreographed every time by Ayling because when he was carrying the ball out, his face was consistantly looking inwards rather than down the line to Brittain. He didn’t want to make that pass. You can disguise who you’re trying to pass to but you can’t disguise neck movement and facial movement when showing what you initially want to do. Even the gif above he pointed where he wanted the ball to be in front rather than to feet and the only pass that’s on is Brittain because Vata is opening his hips up to say go on, do it. As much as Watford nailed the tactics, selection and strategy, the Middlesbrough players were hung out to dry by their manager at the same time. There was nothing for them to create in the final third. There was no combinations to be had or link-play to happen because everyone was central. Hayden Hackney completed 18 passes in 75 minutes of football where his team dominated possession. It was 60% of the ball when he came off too. His lowest completed pass total since playing Birmingham at home in 2022.

There’s really not much else to analyse in this game because of the patterns being extremely obvious. Let Boro have the ball > crowd the middle > make them go wide > cross the ball to nobody > counter. Nothing changed second half when they changed shape, the way of trying to create stayed the same and Watford opened up a bit more with Irankunda having a lovely time of it spraying balls about. Boro created nothing until the 92nd minute where Strelec had a decent opportunity which would have been blocked anyway. Before that their biggest chance was an xG chance of 0.06.

A very comfortable win for us where we didn’t need to break out of third gear because the plan was easy to put into practice. When you know what you’re doing you don’t need to try too hard. If the team you’re up against can’t create chances without having space to run into then simply don’t give them that space, or make them think they have that space to give you the freedom to exploit it. Next up is Ipswich away, it’s not the end of the world if we lose but absolutely show we can put in a performance worthy of points. League table means nothing at this point, couldn’t even tell you where we are. Won’t look until 25 games or so.