The Era Of Tom Cleverley: Part Twenty
Fuck it, Tyreek Hill is down there somewhere. The equivalent to Watford's board saying fuck it, we've tried everything else.
Another season, another pathetic season for the most part. A Watford squad who have a top 10 budget (wages, money spent on players, value) to be finishing 15th on the final day of the season, and only mathematically safe on match-day 44 is nothing to be shouting about. Yes ok, this club is different in the sense that looking like you care and not downing tools is deemed as a positive when it should be the bare minimum. It’s like saying well done to your pet cat because he didn’t piss on your bed. The cliche’s get rolled out about the Championship — It’s unforgiving, It’s a slog, It’s relentless, which there are some truths to that; but it’s also not that difficult to be challenging play-offs with the budget Watford have been working with. Watford are in a position where the club is ran so poorly that they need a Head Coach to over-perform with the players and the style of players he has, is that Tom? I hope so, we’ve seen some good things so far but it remains to be seen what this squad looks like come first game of next season. I don’t think it’ll change too much, maybe a big Yaser Asprilla shaped hole in the squad, but it’s also not hard to improve this squad given the nature of it, especially in the forward areas. Going over old ground when it comes to Cleverley and his strategy for the past eight games is pointless because I don’t think we’ll play this way and I don’t think we’ll have the same back three set-up. The man himself has said the same thing too
“What makes it easy is that we are very, very clear about how we want to play. It becomes a lot easier to recruit if it’s focussed towards a specific style of play and player attributes, we’re very clear on how we want to look as a team. I think you’ll see a completely different team first game of next season.”
In a separate setting with Watford, TC outlined some of his non negotiables from a tactical POV “Defence up the pitch and squeezing when we’re attacking” and then has hinted several times he wants his teams to be very aggressive in the press and name dropped Warren Joyce as the best coaching advice he gave by saying “Make sure you see yourself in your team.”
Given that Cleverley is from a Manchester United background and has highlighted those coaches and Marco Silva as some of the best he’s worked with, It would be an educated guess that in his mind Watford will be moving towards a 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 system next season like his Manchester United compadres Kieran McKenna and Michael Carrick, once he gets the 6/7 week pre season underway.
Before I get into the current squad and what I think recruitment should look like in the summer, I do want to touch on a couple things. Firstly, the expectation on Cleverley going into next season. I think you have to factor in no parachute payments, a considerable cut to wages and spending power, as well as having to sell better players to fund moves for most likely, ability wise anyway, lesser talent. Watford will be operating at roughly a top 12 club next season. If you’re expecting promotion in this season, the higher ups are quit frankly deluded or placing unrealistic expectations on a rookie coach. Cleverley should be treated the same way as Yaser Asprilla or Joao Pedro, give him time to develop with the club, let him learn, let him build, let him make mistakes.. as long as it’s not catastrophic and you’ve backed this man like you should but haven’t other managers, there should be no threat of relegation. This all sounds like pie in the sky stuff but why else would you appoint someone who’s only coaching background is 8 months with the under 18s and a short interim spell. Gino also said at the start of the season about what his preferred style was saying:
“We are looking for a certain coach that is proactive, for example, in recovering the ball. Someone that doesn’t like to sit back and wait. Someone that likes to go more proactively recovering the ball. So we’re looking for a high intensity and so of course around that you need certain type of players. And of course you need a coach that actually wants to do that. In this case we have stressed more certain attributes.”
Then a few weeks later you spend six figures on someone who can’t press or lead from the front in Mileta Rajovic. The mind boggles at how wrong someone can get that signing for the style you want to play. Since the defeat at home to Ipswich in December, Rajovic has started 6 out of a possible 23.. and he’s our top scorer. Just goes to show you that two coaches value rounded attributes over one specific thing. This isn’t to dig into Mileta as he’s clearly a good character to have in the squad but the description Ismael portrayed the Dane to be was completely different to what fans of Kalmar said and funnily enough, what they said is what we’re seeing now and not what the club put out there. Kalmar fans said to us that he was an old school number 9 that struggles to link play, doesn’t press much, isn’t strong but if you give him service into the six yard box.. he will put it away. He can’t generate chances for himself and he can’t strike a ball that well, but what he can do is anticipate. This is what Ismael said upon his arrival:
“ I think he suits the profile of what we expect from that position. He’s young, he’s hungry, he has a good body, very strong and technically very good. He knows exactly where the goal is and can link up with other players. We were convinced about him.”
Almost none of that is true and whoever scouted him and recommended him are now unsurprisingly not at the club anymore. Also unsurprisingly Ismael was saying the complete opposite in January by saying Rajovic needs to improve his physicality and link play both technically and aerially. The mind boggles it really does.
The second point I wanted to make was around clubs of a similar standing and what it takes to overachieve and perhaps get into the playoffs or challenge for it at the minimum. There’s no right way or wrong way — some teams are intense and direct like them lot up the road, others are low blocking, compact and being quick in transition and others are very attacking in a you score we score approach, but those teams are more heavily backed in the transfer window. But one thing is for sure, and there will be a few exceptions, these teams are great from set pieces and they don’t take too many touches to slow things down in settled possession. Believe in what you do and recruit to that, whilst being organised and you’ll pick up points in this league pretty consistently.
Now we move on to the fun part, the part that’s taken over football and has become more important in some ways, which is a bad thing, because sometimes I feel like the art of improving a player is becoming lost the higher up the leagues you go. I want to make this point straight away and that almost no player at your club is bad, there’s obvious outliers in that, but most footballers can be used in a way that makes them effective for your team and that’s down to attitude of said player and the coaching staff at the club. Take Edo Kayembe and Tom Dele-Bashiru for example. Both players have been at the club for a number of seasons now and It took two years for a coach to finally realise at the club that Kayembe is better suited further forward and It took 8 managers to realise Tom Dele was made for that holding midfield role. I also want to stress this too regarding recruitment — you should almost always ignore what other fans of the player you’re signing from their club say; mainly because, and Ali Maxwell from NTT20 put it better than I could.. Is you’re signing a player because of what you think he can do for you, what he did for the previous club is almost irrelevant; I’m paraphrasing there of course. Ask what style of player he is rather than what his performance levels where, it almost always never mirrors up 12 months down the line.
Squad next season as it stands:
Ashley Fletcher is still here. Ashley Fletcher is still contracted. Ashley Fletcher was signed to a five-year contract whilst in the Premier League. I’m currently starring straight into my laptop screen in amazement. Ok, I’m calm now. Looking at that squad and it terrifies me to be honest with you. Asprilla is a bit like Cillian Murphy after we all saw Oppenheimer with the Oscars coming up. We know he’s winning, just get on with it. We know Asprilla is leaving, get the best deal possible. What I would say is I think Giorgi Chakvetadze is a very good replacement and screams player of the season next season, just putting it out there. But just looking at it from face value that squad lacks balance, quality and the eye rolling phrase “Championship nous” which in this particular situation, is true. However, It does have a lot of young players and players who want to prove themselves, amongst glaring holes that need addressing for sure. I want to go position by position and talking about where the improvements need to be, if spending money on that position is wise and offer some solutions/recommendations. We finished bottom half in the second tier, every player is available to upgrade and/or sell.
Goalkeeper: Daniel Bachmann
Bachmann has had an indifferent time at the club. From being very good, to good, to eh to terrible all in the space of four seasons. He’s yet to have a full season of consistency, It’s always a fluctuation of extremes. Take this season for example, Under Ismael — he was operating a career low level for pretty much every metric, but under Cleverley he’s operating at a career high level for pretty much every metric. His main strengths are 1v1s and saving shots from close range, but distribution, commanding of area and being susceptible to errors are too common in his game. However, every player can be improved and every player can become consistent to some degree. If this current Bachmann can become the norm then GK shouldn’t be a position we spend money on, but I feel we’ll probably be back here again at some point discussing Bachmann. For what it’s worth I think it’s way down the pecking order for positions to sort out, but if a loan player like Carl Rushworth (He wont join us, I’m more talking about the calibre of GK) becomes available then it’s certainly something I’d look into.
Right Backs: Ryan Andrews and Jeremy Ngakia
Starting with Ryan Andrews — He needs to keep playing games, keep improving because the base profile/skillset is there for him to really kick on if he wants to. Speedy, strong, gets into a lot of goal scoring positions despite being a full back. Of course he needs refinement, but he’s one that really does have it all to be a top level player. It was his first season in men’s football in a difficult environment and has on the whole not looked out of place. A must keep for me and one I want starting minimum 20/25 games next season.
Jeremy Ngakia —Unfortunately for Jeremey he’s always injured so It’s impossible to get a read on him and a connection to him. When he first joined he looked great, won player of the month for September for his performances under Ivic, and we’ve not seen the same player since, and that was in 2020. I can understand why Watford extended his contract (not for four years mind) as you’re putting all your eggs in the Ryan Andrews basket, and tying a player down who’s serviceable for the level that will play 15 or so games makes sense. The problem is the availability and the length of deal. Watford should definitely be in the market for another full back.
Central Defence:
Wesley Hoedt
Ryan Porteous
Mattie Pollock
Francisco Sierralta
As a collective I think all four are fine given the budget we’re working on and the money more than likely available to spend this summer. Porteous and Hoedt will, if we think Cleverley will revert to a back four, be the starting two with Pollock and Sierralta acting as backup. I could see Sierralta leaving and the club looking at a left footed centre back as cover for Hoedt. The flaws in those four might be exacerbated by squeezing in the final third in possession and we get caught in transition, none of them are quick and turn with speed. It might rely on the full backs being extra rapid and being able to cover that ground if the situation allows them.
Midfielders — (DM, CM, AM):
Tom Dele-Bashiru
Edo Kayembe
Imran Louza
Ismael Kone
Yaser Asprilla
Giorgi Chakvetadze
Honestly I think this is the strongest part of the squad by a considerable distance, even with the certainty that Yaser is leaving. It’s got power, speed, duel winners, creativity, passing ability (If Louza stays) what I think it does lack and what I think needs adding is what Livermore provided this season in leadership, Championship nous and a strong voice in the dressing room. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Livermore got a few minutes at the last home game of the season, fully expect him to move on. Yaser will obviously need replacing too, and one thing I think those players do lack, especially in deeper areas, is touch to pass count. We take too many touches and slow down play far too often and I don’t think that's a coaching issue as I looked at TDB, Kayembe, Kone’s career for that metric and they’re in the ball park of 1.18-1.30 — which is below league average, especially for players at the top of the table. The only player that (not including Giorgi and Yaser) is in the higher of the division for making quick passes and moving the tempo higher is Louza (1.14). Speaking of Louza, if he wants to stay and Cleverley wants him to stay, I’d much rather have him here because we’re not going to replace him with someone better, and we’ve already seen a different environment can do the world of good for players.
Wingers:
Ken Sema
Samuel Kalu
Tom Ince
Shaq Forde
Kwadwo Baah
Good god almighty. This is a position that needs recruiting big time. Sema is a fantastic squad and versatile option but I wouldn’t be shocked if he moves on this summer. Kalu I’d genuinely give a chance too, he’s having a great loan for Lausanne in Switzerland. His dribbling and defensive numbers are off the charts, as well as creating chances and chipping in with a few goals. He’s got history of producing good numbers in a top five league in France, why can’t he have a redemption arc under Clevs? we’ve seen Kayembe be a waste of time for a while and now finally look integral, Sema went away on loan and has come back and played a tonne of games, Kalu I have full faith in you. Ince I thought was quite smart to bring in for £50k but It’s just not worked and I don’t think it will, would look to get his wages off the books and bring in somebody younger. Fully expect Baah to go out on another loan and Forde to be given a chance in pre season after winning Leyton Orient’s Young Player Of The Season. He’s shown he can hang in the National League and now League One, the next step hopefully is contributing in the Championship. Helps he can play multiple roles too. But if I was Gino, I’d be looking at two wingers for the summer at the bare minimum.
Strikers:
Vakoun Bayo
Mileta Rajovic
Ashley Fletcher
Jack Grieves
Jose Hurtado
Mamadou Doumbia
We were in the Premier League two seasons ago, and this is what we have. I think Bayo and Fletcher will be let go for sure, Hurtado and Grieves will get loans and then Doumbia and Rajovic maybe the two backups to a new forward coming in. In terms of performances this season, Bayo and Rayo have been below average. Bayo is clearly the better footballer but I don’t think he’s good enough. There’s a reason why he’s never been a first choice at 90% of clubs he’s been at. Rajovic is just not at the level of the Championship. But I do think Cleverley will want to work with him and I can’t see a club coming in and paying money for him, it’s better to keep him, get him working on his power with his legs. I’m yet to see how good a finisher Rajovic is, he can’t create separation with his shots, he’s not quick enough to get in behind 1v1. Having a 1 in 4 record is poor, not being able to offer anything else other than tap ins makes it a lot worse. Bayo works hard which is the bare minimum and can help us sustain pressure in the final third, but that’s about it really. A striker or two is the priority for me going into the summer. Emmanuel Dennis has been ok since he’s come in but not had the impact we wanted. Partly down to him, partly down to injury and partly down to us being quite bad. I love him and think he’s great but I wouldn’t bring him back, think it’s time to move on and start afresh.
Usually I would have gone through each player in the squad and given them a season rating for their performances, but I don’t think anyone performed above a 5/10 bar Wesley Hoedt and contextually Ryan Andrews. However, looking into recruitment for the summer, and that’s including outgoings too, Watford have decisions to make on a number of players whether to try and renew or sell to raise some capital.
Wesley Hoedt
Ken Sema (club option)
Tom Ince
Tom Dele-Bashiru
I would look to extend Hoedt and TDB and that’s probably it. Sema and Ince I would look to move on partly due to the wages they’re on and the ability to replace them could be ‘easier’ but if Sema was to stay for another season I wouldn’t be mad at it because he’s obviously a valuable squad member that offers versatility and solid performances for the most part, even if his output is lacking. Regarding the incomings, we have to be so much smarter than what we’ve been in the last five or so years. We don’t have the safety net of parachute payments to be able to bail us out. I don’t want us to be signing players to higher wages or dishing out five-year contracts to players who aren’t at the requisite quality, it’s too much risk and makes it close to impossible to move them on. My expectations next season is just to survive, so you have to factor in that in your thinking when recruiting. I know Cleverley is saying we want to be up the top end competing next season but we have to be realistic. Unless Scott Duxbury was telling the truth, which I doubt, and we’re debt free for this summer, and any money we raise can be reinvested, then our aims next season should to be survive. Less money to spend, less wages to give out, less quality to attract to the club. But that means you have to scout better, be creative in the market, actually, I don’t know, recruit for the style of play you want. So, here’s what I would do in the coming months:
Use Udinese to save money
Sign proven Championship players
Look for gems in EFL/similar quality leagues
Use the loan market from elite Premier League academies
Only spend money on clear positions of need
Going back to what the squad is currently looking like, there’s so many holes and a lack of balance as I mentioned earlier. I think we’d like to bring in a keeper, but is it the wisest thing to do spend money on unless a top loan becomes available for more or less money? I’m not so sure. Right back should be used to bring in someone on a one-year deal or something alone those lines to act as someone pushing Andrews and acting as cover for Ngakia too who’s constantly injured — I’m looking at someone like a Tommy Smith from Middlesbrough, someone with experience that can help in the dressing room and on the field, similar to what Livermore did. Left centre back and left back is where we should look to use our Udinese links — there’s two players there already that fit the mould of what we need and want from a physical and league point of view and two deals that won’t cost us much and pretty easy to do. I’ve reeled them off pretty quickly for obvious reasons, but I’m going to go into a bit more depth in these next few picks for midfielders (DM, CM, AM), wingers and strikers.
With the possibility of TDB leaving, Livermore likely to be released, uncertain futures around Kone and Louza — midfield for me is a must to strengthen. I think they’re all really nice footballers, but I don’t trust them yet to dominate games or turn it into a scrap that this league needs. We saw against Middlesbrough that whilst they’re very nice footballers and technically secure, we’re quite easy to overpower and take control of. If my assumption is correct and we move to a 4-2-3-1, the two pivot players need to be solid, robust players and I’d like a form of a captain in there, that’s a non negotiable for me when looking at this midfield. The players I’d have on my shortlist would be (they’re not the most exciting but needs must in our predicament)
Alan Browne (Free agent)
Paddy McNair (Free agent)
Ryan Wintle (Cardiff City)
Krystian Bielik (Birmingham City)
Lewis Travis (Blackburn Rovers)
Ben Whiteman (Preston North End)
I’m not really looking at these players in a data light, more-so looking at the intangibles and steel they’d be able to bring to the squad, whilst being able to play majority of the season (touches wood for Bielik) but the best midfielders Watford have had in recent times in this league have been John Eustace, Jonathan Hogg, Ben Watson, Will Hughes.
Moving onto attacking midfielders, with only Giorgi most likely being the one that fits that role — you could also play Kone, Louza and Kayembe there but their way of playing is a lot different to a type of profile you’d want there. Kone and Kayembe are ball strikers/carriers who aren’t the best pressers, Louza is more of a creative passer but hasn’t got the tenacity I’d personally want there, which Giorgi does possess. I think this is a position in which you might want to buy somebody to be an asset down the line, someone you can build-up and sell to keep the money coming in when the TV money just keeps the lights on and wages being paid.
Jack Rudoni (Huddersfield Town)
Abdelkahar Kadri (KV Kortrijk)
Harvey Knibbs (Reading)
Edmond Paris-Maghoma (Brentford)
These are quite ambitious names. Rudoni won’t be that cheap, Kadri is wanted by top European clubs and Maghoma will be a player who’ll be chased by a lot of Championship clubs on loan. I’ve included Harvey Knibbs from Reading because he’s a profile that I absolutely adore and is quite rare to find. Can play as a 10, striker or wide — a pressing/hard working monster, is 6’2 that has a variety of finishes to his game. He’d probably be my first choice out of the ones mentioned purely because I’ve convinced myself from an American terminology that he’d be a sleeper signing. 11 goals and 6 assists for Reading this season which isn’t bad at all, there’s just something about him I really really like since seeing him play for Cambridge.
In the wide positions, I really do think we lack speed and goalscoring threat in behind, someone that can go both ways rather than just outside or inside. A bit of youthful speed and no fear mentality could be a huge asset for this squad. I’d like to see Forde given a squad role as a wide option from what I’ve seen of him at Orient, and maybe Sema being the other option, but neither of them are quick quick. Sema a heavy crosser and Forde a goalscorer which are both valuable.
Micah Hamilton (Manchester City)
Facundo Pellistri (Manchester United)
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi (Crystal Palace)
Omari Kellyman (Aston Villa)
Isaac Nuhu (KAS Eupen)
The first four players here would be loan options — Kellyman specifically I know is more of a 10/striker but I think has the capabilities to be an effective scoring wide option with his directness, but the one player I do like on here just because the speed is frightening.. is Nuhu at Eupen. Yes he can be very frustrating, he can miss chances, but he’s only 21 and with better players I think he’d up his productivity in front of goal, as well as being very hard working out of possession.
Finally the number 9 position. Something Watford have lacked since arguably the 15/16 season with Deeney and Ighalo — We’ve not had a striker since those two, when they were properly in their prime that was reliable and could score you goals. Deulofeu played there before with Troy but he was a roamer that could do anything he wanted in the final third rather than being a outright striker, I miss you Geri. My preference for this position would be someone who’s ready to start now rather than a younger player. My favourite strikers at Watford since the mid 90s have been Marlon King, Danny Graham and Heidar Helguson. Whilst all of them offered something different in terms of skillset, they all had a similar trait in being able to manhandle a backline and do the dirty stuff when required. Marlon King especially doesn’t get enough credit for his channel running and gritty work and In my opinion the best striker we’ve had for a long long time, but that’s a conversation for another day. Even Darius Henderson would be great for us and his finishing ability left a lot to be desired at times. Now onto the style of striker I would look to bring in — If you can strike gold and find a goalscorer as well as someone that can run channels and link play to a good level then by all means go out there and back your scouting ability. But on the budget we’re on I think we have to be a bit more realistic with the skillset we can prize to the club. I’d value hard work, link play, physicality and a burst of pace over an out n out finisher, basically a much better version of Bayo rather than another Rajovic. I’m a sucker for a tall, strong striker that can dribble and carry well that has as close to clean ball striking technique, but they cost money or they’re younger players that need to be developed for the level. Liam Delap is the perfect example of this, two ‘failed’ loans at Preston and Stoke and now has finally found his feet at Hull and his profile is like unicorn for Championship football. If you can get him on loan then do it, but I think he’ll go to others in the division that will be able to pay more wages and offer a better deal to Manchester City. I’ve been talking about shot placement for a while, and you shouldn’t do this by any means, It’s a theory on my behalf that I’ve convinced that has a solid enough foundation to be somewhat true. What I mean by shot placement is the percentage of shots you take that are on target that go into the corners, whether that be a goal or a save, and that eventually if you train and work hard enough, these will start to be regular goals.
A lot of context has to be factored into this though, as well as other metrics like shot location, quality of team, league quality, and ideally more than a seasons worth of shots to watch and evaluate. For example, I’ve looked at different quality of strikers ranging from elite to tier 4 players. To me there’s only three elite strikers in world football; Harry Kane, Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappe. Taking shot location (inside the box, penalties excluded, foot only) and from the 20/21 season, these are the results:
Harry Kane: 244 shots | 25.17% of shots on target into corners
Erling Haaland: 276 shots | 26.33% of shots on target into corners
Kylian Mbappe: 354 shots | 25.06% of shots on target into corners
Tier two strikers:
Robert Lewandowski: 269 shots | 24.4% of shots on target into corners
Lautaro Martinez: 263 shots | 23% of shots on target into corners
Victor Osimhen: 207 shots | 23.57% shots on target into corners
Alexander Isak: 175 shots | 29.49% shots on target into corners
Isak is a clear outlier here and I’ve said he’s arguably the best finisher in the world and I’d personally put him close to the bracket of elite once he moves to an elite side who’ll get more out of him.
Tier three strikers:
Ollie Watkins: 245 shots | 22.96% of shots on target into corners
Viktor Gyokeres: 255 shots | 23.06% of shots on target into corners
I’m not going to continue listing every striker in each tier because you get the point by now. I’m looking at shot placement for strikers in lower leagues that constantly hit a percentage, In Championship’s case, roughly 18%. So if a striker is hitting over 25% in League One and Two and has a solid base profile in which would look fine with better calibre of players, then it’s one I’d look to see if there’s value in the market.
Style of striker I want Watford to recruit:
As I mentioned earlier, I want Watford to recruit a striker that is pretty good at most things rather than pretty good at one thing. I’m looking for somebody that is comfortable with his back to goal and linking play, as well as carrying the team up the pitch and helping sustain pressure in the final third, sprinkled with my shot placement logic. Basically Keinan Davis but not him and someone who’s available every week.
Troy Parrott:
After a tough season last year with Preston, after a very good loan spell with MK Dons in League One, Parrott is enjoying his football again with Excelsior in the Eredivisie. 8 goals, 4 assists in 22 games. He played off the left for Liam Manning at MK because of his work off the ball, his in possession capabilities and being able to strike the ball quite well but he himself has always preferred the central position. You have to factor in the quality of team he’s in which is more or less on the same level as Rotherham, and he’s in a league that ranges from Premier League quality sides to League One quality sides. For example, eight of the sides are as good as top half League One teams. Looking at his goals this season and his shots on target, 48% are getting on target and 35% of them are into the corners which is remarkably high. Is it a case of the player finally adjusting to men’s football at a higher level? or is the league easier, to me It’s a combination of the two. We know his overall skillset is good enough for the Championship, It’s just in front of goal at Preston he was so poor, only 6.25% of his 32 shots on target were into a corner, and to me explains quite a lot. But like Liam Delap, I think he’s one worth taking a gamble on if Spurs are willing to loan/sell
Jay Stansfield:
Just won Birmingham City’s Players Player of the season, Young Player of the season, Supporters Player of the season, Goal of the season and was the Top Goalscorer. I think this one could be filed under unrealistic as I presume better clubs in this league will be in for him, but a loan with Cleverley at the helm, someone who Marco Silva already knows and respects hugely, could maybe get in front of the queue. We already know what kinda player he is, so you don’t need me to tell you. Again passes my shot placement % with an average of 19% in both of his seasons in the EFL. That should only improve as he does.
Tyrese Campbell:
Anyone that follows me knows how much of a big Tyrese Campbell fan I am. But this one comes with huge risk simply because of his injury record. He’ll be 25 at the end of the year and is yet to complete more than 30 league starts in a season, as well as a wage that won’t be cheap. However, I’m not losing faith in him yet because I truly believe he has what it takes to score 20+ in the Championship. Once he’s up to speed and playing regularly he’s a consistently good finisher. Good speed, solid all round play, can strike a ball really well. He’s taken 118 shots over his Championship career at an average shot placement percentage of 22.13% at a 46% on target rate when he’s healthy and playing every week. You’d have to bring another striker in I think, I don’t think you can rely on him to play every week so far, but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen.
Max Dean:
I’ll be stunned if MK Dons manage to hang onto Max Dean this summer given the shortage of EFL strikers (in my opinion of course) a tireless, relentless hard working forward that can strike a ball so well from either inside the box or outside the box, and only 20 years old too. I think the jump could be a bit high straight away but I think he’s one that clubs will look back on and think shit, we should have went early. Only one season’s worth of data on him and for my shot placement model but 15 goals and 5 assists in 29 games, 50% of his shots on target, 28% into corners, which is better than both Ali Al-Hamadi and Brandon Thomas-Asante who were also in League Two and younger. He’s certainly one to watch out for.
Wildcard here me out option | Callum Robinson:
I know people are reading this now with their eyes squinted and tempted to stop reading, but let me put my case forward for Callum Robinson. 6 goals in the last two seasons, fallen out of favour at Cardiff City, 29 years old and career has somewhat stagnated after a promising early career. Did anyone see Chuba Akpom suddenly scoring 30 goals in a season after getting five the previous season and then getting a move to Ajax? did anyone see Sammie Szmodics scoring 30 goals this season after scoring 5 last season and then 6 before that? Robinson has always been someone with higher quality talent that can do a bit of everything. Get someone in his ear telling him that and making him feel loved again and enjoying his football (injury free too) and I think you’ve got a really good forward for this level. Football scouting and transfers are all about seeing something that others might not see, there’s value in everyone if you look at the things you want. I’m going to let everyone know now that and I’ll reiterate this, most players aren’t bad when they’re at your club, there’s always different reasons for performances — private life, manager tactics, environment of club etc. You get the idea. Recruitment is about more or less ignoring what said player has done previously and looking at what he can do for you; Jake Livermore case and point.
Appreciate people if they manage to get to the end of this long read. In previous seasons I’d have gone for more obscure players but I simply don’t think Watford are in the position to do that currently. My expectations for next season is to survive and to grow with Cleverley as Head Coach. I really don’t expect playoffs or anything close to that, we’re at square one again and what we’re usually like at this level. It sucks but that’s reality unless some investment comes in and we can be more ambitious or Gino finds money down the side of his couch. Watford should be bringing through academy players, buying untapped value in the EFL and building towards something with a young coach at the heart of it all. You Orns and Pozzo Out.
Enjoyed reading your stuff this year, thanks for putting it together. Roll on next season
Great read - thanks for putting this together. Already looking forward to next season!