My 1-24 Championship Predictions

"A good forecaster is not smarter than everyone else, he merely has his ignorance better organised. "

One week until the greatest league in the world returns, with the spectacle of Sheffield Wednesday vs Southampton awaiting us. But before that, it’s that time of year again where predictions are made, gauntlets are thrown down, and most of us are looking like idiots when looking back on these same predictions we made. Instead of clogging up your timeline, or tweeting out a table with no reasoning behind my picks of why I put certain teams where, I thought I’d write an article instead so I can focus properly on each team after doing research, and speaking to different fanbases — also feel free to pull me up if I get anything wrong — I will admit if I made a mistake. Enough of all that, let’s get into the predictions.

24th: Sheffield Wednesday

From the highs towards the end of last season and the feel good factor with how Wednesday got promoted, you’d think the club would come into this season riding a wave of momentum — but from the outside looking in, it feels like self sabotage from the owner Dejphon Chansiri. From the decision to sack Darren Moore after a supposed disagreement over where the club should be this season, to hiring Xisco Munoz, to not being proactive in the transfer market with an already thin squad; the whole club just feels woefully underprepared for this season to me. The good thing about Xisco is he does bring the intangibles that Darren Moore has which is the ability to bring a whole fanbase and dressing room together — however, as a football manager I’m really not convinced he’s up to the level required to go above and beyond and get results. At Watford his mantra was keep it tight, rely on one of the best defences the Championship has seen; which was put in motion by previous head coach Vladimir Ivic, and give it to your better players to win the game for you — there was no distinctive style of play, it was win games by any means necessary. The conversation even when he was with us and we got promoted was it wasn’t good to watch but it got results, and the smartest thing to do would have been replacing him in the summer. His career trajectory after Watford doesn’t make for good reading either; and signing players like Ashley Fletcher doesn’t give me much hope for them this season sadly.

23rd: Rotherham United

I feel very lazy putting Rotherham here, but my reasoning is because of budget and their defence/wingbacks in terms of quality. Cafu, Wiles and Rathbone is a solid midfield three and if they add Tiehi as well I think they could quite easily survive based on the strength of that lone, but I’m not convinced with Morrison, Hall or Blackett — despite them being in front of one of the best keepers in the division in Viktor Johansson. As I mentioned earlier, the wingbacks too are a concern for me, whilst the manager Taylor has proven to get a team to be more than some of It’s parts throughout his limited time in the dugout, I think they’ll have to rely on Johansson being an 8/10 in most games again, and that’s wishful thinking for any keeper outside of the elite.

22nd: Huddersfield Town

I’m going against football folklore here, and the gods are looking down on me in disbelief that I’m predicting a Neil Warnock side to get relegated in the EFL. I just think Warnock starting the season and Warnock coming into a season are very very different managers. If you look at the Middlesbrough team he had, they were less than some of their parts, he even had Jonny Howson looking finished. The current squad, whilst I think Nicholls is one of the best keepers in the league and Thomas can be very effective, I think it lacks goals, quality and depth. There is a good mix of youth and experience in the side, with the likes of Lees, Pearson, Hogg and Ward. But I don’t think the younger players are at a consistent enough level to get them over the line; especially if Hogg isn’t in the middle of the park, they’ll be lining up with Kasumu, Edmonds-Green and Rudoni — is that enough? I’m not convinced personally. The forward areas doesn’t inspire me with much hope for them either — whilst Koroma showed glimpses of what we know he can do pre injury towards the back end of last season, I don’t think he and Danny Ward can be relied upon to score goals consistently, and I don’t think they have enough match winners in the squad ahead of the other teams who I have down the bottom with them (which can be rectified in the window I may add) but if there’s one manager that can do it, It’s Neil Warnock.

21st: QPR

I think If Willock stays fit and Chair stays in general, QPR won’t be 21st, so I’m basing this on the idea that neither of those things happening. I also think Dykes is the perfect player for Ainsworth to mould into a 15+ striker at this level, and it looks like in pre season, Ainsworth is adapting to his squad rather than outright playing percentage football — which does bode well for them going into the season. I haven’t got much to say on QPR other than they have some of the better players in the league, but don’t have any depth in most positions for me, which is an issue over a 46 game season, as obvious at that sounds.

20th: Plymouth Argyle

Plymouth are on a similar trajectory to those who shall not be named, and to a loose extent Brentford and Brighton. Smart in everything they do, getting better every season and will eventually be a top 6 side in the Championship if all goes to plan. I really like them resigning Bali Mumba and Morgan Whittaker; Kaine Kesler-Hayden is a good pickup too — Adam Randell is a favourite of mine so looking forward to seeing what he can do this season. They’ve got a real good blend of experienced pro’s and experienced younger players if that makes sense. I think it’s going to be really tight between 19th and say 14th, and I’ve just got Plymouth here because of a lack of 9 who I think can make the difference at this level. I also think not having Michael Cooper for the first part of the season will play a part as well, as he could even be one of the best in the league after this season is over.

19th: Blackburn Rovers

Here’s my bold prediction for the season, Blackburn in a relegation battle (kind of) — hear me out first, but before that, I do want to say that Jon Dahl Tomasson deserved to be in the manager of the year discussions last season, and has shown to be one of, if not the best tactical coach in the league. Took a very young team and moulded them into something above what I believe they’re capable of; and I think they were unfairly looked down upon because of their “bad” performance data, which I looked into myself and their data was heavily skewed because of a four game swing; anyway I won’t bore you with that. Defence is good, midfield is good, attack is meh but serviceable.. so why 19th? simply because of the uncertainty surrounding the manager and the investment into the team — yes more or less every club needs to sell first before they can buy, but I don’t trust their ownership enough and that might be ignorance on my behalf, to do what’s right for the club. Even if these reports aren’t 100% accurate, there’s enough for an outsider like me to be cautious with. I haven’t even mentioned the elephant in the room of Brereton-Diaz leaving; and despite what you think of him as a player, It’s still 18 goal contributions gone out the team. But if Tomasson does stay I think they’ll be closer to top half than this prediction here.

18th: Birmingham City

Perhaps another surprising pick given a lot of people are very high on Birmingham this season, which I don’t disagree with at all. Promising young manager In John Eustace who I’d love to be our head coach one day, nine permanent signings with more to come and a takeover — there’s no doubt the future is bright for the club. However I think this season Eustace will adapt his style of play and it’ll be a transition for them. They won’t be in trouble of relegation but they won’t be in the playoff picture just yet for me. From a squad perspective, I really like that they’re targeting young players that haven’t quite took that extra step yet, I think it’s a market that clubs need to utilise more. I do question the amount of goals in the side too, I’d like them to go out and get a better striker than they’ve currently got. But If I’m honest, there’s a whole bunch of teams from 18th-9th that can easily be interchangeable.

17th: Preston North End

I think Ryan Lowe has struggled to implement the style of play he had at Plymouth to what he’s currently got Preston playing at the moment — that could be down to Schumacher not being there, not having the right profile of player or simply having to work on a shoe string budget; most likely a combination of all three. They weren’t far off finishing in the playoffs last season but I think it was the weakest Championship we’ve seen in a while. They’ll be fine this season, won’t trouble relegation, won’t trouble playoffs. However, If they manage to get Tom Cannon back, please for the love of god partner him with Emil Riis — they’ve got a good combined skillset to push Preston on, but for whatever reason, Lowe wasn’t that keen on Riis last season. I do think Will Keane is a smart pickup mind you, intelligent footballer who can also score a variety of goals, and useful if you want to whip it in the mixer with his aerial ability. I genuinely really like their XI and the addition of Mads Frokjaer-Jensen could be a game changer with his skillset. A strong, tall, technically gifted dribbler that can score goals and create them is always a good thing to have in your team — I know some guys that work at clubs in the Championship who were disappointed to miss out on him to Preston, so I look forward to seeing him play. Him and Ben Whitemen together could be fantastic.

16th: Hull City

I again this season don’t have a scooby about Hull. Rosenior is another promising coach, the team is solid enough, I really like Seri and Traore, but for whatever reason I just don’t trust what their owner is doing. They could quite easily finish 6th but also quite easily finish where I’ve put them. On Rosenior though, in order for him to grow, I think he struggles or hasn’t learnt that players need to have a bit more freedom within the framework put in place. I watched a lot of his Derby side and enough Hull games to see there’s still too much emphasis on control and build-up in deeper areas. He might have planned that so It’s easier to transition into a more fluid team like Arteta at Arsenal when he did the same thing too. I do really like the look of Harry Vaughan too, they love creating those small hard-working wingers at Hull. But yeah, I really don’t know with them.

15th: Norwich City

This one for me largely is down to David Wagner and the damage I think he’ll do this season. I originally had them lower, but I think someone will come in and get more consistent results. Bar the Stacey signing, I’m not keen on their business so far this season, I think they should have focused on central defence and a better striker than Ashley Barnes if I’m honest. It feels like they signed them because they can rather than because they need them, but I could be way off on that. I think creatively they’ll struggle to break teams down because I don’t think they have the players to do so either, albeit I do think Sara can carry this team and Nunez can have a really good season after settling in after a year of English football.

14th: Stoke City

Tyrese Campbell is my favourite forward in the league, and Josh Laurent is fantastic too, but the Stoke curse will forever live on, they could have the best squad in the league and still find themselves lower down the table. I’ve predicted them to be in or around playoffs every season so I’m just putting them here because it might finally break the voodoo curse that’s going on there. Last season they realised how good a squad they were for like 6 weeks then reverted to type again. SORT IT OUT STOKE FOR FUCK SAKE.

13th: Cardiff City

I really like the business Cardiff have done this season. I think they’ve added goals, narrative in the Ramsey signing and upgraded their defence. I’m also putting faith in their new manager Erol Bulut to get it right as I spoke to a few Turkish Super Lig fans who DM’d me about how bad Jackson Muleka is and begged Watford to sign him due to Val.. anyway, they said Bulut Isn’t suited to top teams, but is excellent at overperforming with lesser sides and almost always has an impact for about a year and then tails off, so I’m banking on the same happening here. What’s holding me back from putting them higher up is I don’t think their keepers are good enough currently.

12th: Millwall

Gary Rowett is destined to always finish between 7th-12th. For whatever reason he just can’t seem to get over the finish line. 12th is a drop off last season for sure, my reasoning is can Bradshaw score even close to the same amount of goals as last season? Will Nisbet step up from the SPL? I have no doubts about Zian Flemming as his talent level is clear for all to see, and I really like the signing of Casper De Norre — a nippy bastard that’s role versatile that can also add final third quality too. Defensively Millwall are always more or less decent, but I can’t get on board with George Long; if they had a much better keeper, and I appreciate Bialkowski is there but isn’t playing, but if they had a better keeper between the sticks, I’d have them higher for sure.

11th: Swansea City

This is a gamble mainly on Michael Duff — the reason I’m not entirely convinced is the sale of Piroe and the transition period for not only the club as a whole, but the players themselves. Going from an uber possession style to well, not that takes time, especially with a club so ingrained with a certain style of football. I was listening to Dan Ashworth speak about club DNA and saying that if you go against it, whilst it could work, immediate results don’t follow, there’s always a build to it — especially if it’s something the fans are not used to. But I think with the addition of a new keeper, potential money to play with after the sale of Piroe, in the hands of Paul Watson who knows how to work his way around a market, I think Duff can get Swansea trending closer in the right direction as his style is much easier to recruit for than the previous manager; and given Duff isn’t a million miles away from Rob Edwards and Nathan Jones in terms of football style, there’s no reason why they can’t build a similar side together; and you’re already seeing that with Jerry Yates, Josh Key and Josh Ginnelly. Side note: I can see Oliver Cooper having a real breakout season under Duff.

10th: Bristol City

I’m always high on Bristol City, but a lot like Stoke they shit the bed at some point. Their team to me is good enough to be in contention for playoffs — they’ve added Jason Knight, Ross McCrorie, Haydon Roberts and Rob Dickie to already a good young squad. I also think Nigel Pearson doesn’t get enough credit for the transitional period he’s managed the club in either; the bringing through of academy players, giving them a chance and developing them into genuine quality players for the level is all you can ask for when a club has cut back their spending since the Lee Johnson era. I think I may have put these too low, especially if they manage to keep Alex Scott, but gut feeling and all that jazz.

9th: Sunderland

Might be a surprise to some people that I’ve got Sunderland down in 9th but I think without Diallo (unless he comes back of course) I think there’s obviously a drop off and he helped massively with the Ross Stewart gaped whole up front in terms of goal contributions, on top of them being a really young team. Mowbray is excellent, Jack Clarke is excellent, I really like Cirkin and Ekwah too. I think they’ll be in the hunt for playoffs for sure, but I think they’ll just fall short — but make no mistake, Sunderland are definitely on the up with their ownership and recruitment model, you’d think it’s only a matter of time before they’re back in the Premier League again.

8th: Watford

It’s the optimism in me. Yeah we’re mental, but we’re rarely outside of the playoff picture. We played badly all season last year, but finished only two wins from 6th. We’ve also cleared the decks, selling 22 players, and starting to actually recruit for the manager in Valerian Ismael — who’s playing a completely different brand of football than you’d expect an Ismael side to play (In possession) well at least that’s what pre season is telling us. With the sale of Joao Pedro and Sarr, whilst the quality coming in won’t be as good, to me having those players almost made it a burden for the head coach and the players because we became so individualistic, whereas this season I think we’ll become a much better team because of it. Watford fans are concerned we might not score enough goals, I’m the opposite, I think with the style of play we’ll score goals — but where we’ll be let down is defensively. I can see a lot of high scoring games this season, and I think we’ve become slightly underrated with the players we have in comparison to other teams around us. The likes of Ryan Porteous, Jamal Lewis, Imran Louza, Ismael Kone, Ken Sema. I think Healey is a smart pickup too that can score goals in this league. We’ll add players in the market — it might be blind optimism but I’m really liking what we’re doing this season. Don’t ruin it please Gino.

7th: Ipswich Town

They’ve got the manager, they’ve got the backing and they’ve got the team to cause upsets this season. Ipswich have been touted by a lot of others to make the playoffs and there is a reason for that. I suppose where it could come unstuck is the goal scoring number 9 if say Chaplin or Broadhead aren’t contributing — can you hang your hat on George Hirst and Freddie Ladapo scoring consistently? there’s no reason why they can’t, but they’ve not shown it at this level yet albeit the latter did score 9 for Rotherham before. I admit there’s a risk in this and the sensible thing would to have them lower, but there’s no fun in that, and I’m on record saying McKenna is the best manager/coach in the EFL and a 7th placed finish would aid my thoughts on him.

6th: West Brom

This goes against everything I’ve said about other clubs. No spending, club seemingly in a bit of chaos, lack of depth in areas, fans not happy with their ownership. However, what I’ve described there is what Carlos Corberan thrives on, and I’m lucky enough to know someone who works with him and they told me they’ve never seen him more focused and more dedicated in his life and I was like ohhhhh shit; Carlos is going to do it isn’t he? also they have just signed Jeremy Sarmiento, and as far as signings go, you’re not going to get much better than that at Championship level. The lack of striker could kill my pick here altogether, but I can see them getting a smart loan in, on top of Swift, Wallace, Yokuslu, Molumby and a rejuvinated Alex Mowatt. Not even West Brom fans would have them this high but like I said earlier, Corberan is a genius.

5th: Coventry City

This pick is a lot like my West Brom one in regards to Corberan, Coventry have Mark Robins. Ignoring the potential fee, I think Simms as a profile and project is a good replacement for Gyokeres, a fit Callum O’Hare coming back who I adore, the addition of pressing monster Tatsuhiro Sakamoto, I back them to keep Hamer and I like the signing of Bobby Thomas too, just a real smart club altogether. I think they’ll continue to spend money and I trust them to build on last season and upset the more established teams in this division. You can bet your ass if Hamer does go, they’ll bring someone in who will be close to as effective and the team won’t skip a beat. Ben Sheaf is also one of the most underrated players in the league, I’m just high on Coventry all round really, think they’re in for another top season.

4th: Middlesbrough

I’ll be honest, I’m going to contradict myself a whole lot when it comes to Middlesbrough because I don’t like the majority of business they’ve done and I’m unsure whether Akpom can replicate a similar season, on top of them being clearly weaker than last season. I think Kieran Scott is one of the best in the business so I trust him (not his recruitment team, that’s a whole other discussion) to bring in a striker and left back of the requisite quality to get them pushing for automatics this season. I think Carrick will adapt his system and strategy too, I don’t think they’ll be as all out attack and open defensively, I think they’ll use the pace of Silvera in quick bursts more in a direct manner from balls into those middle/wide areas, and I think Forss is capable of scoring at least 15 this season. As you can tell by now, most of my picks in the playoff area are based on how good I think the manager and his team are.

3rd: Leicester City

There was a thread by a Leicester fan on Twitter that annoyed me so much that I dropped them two places to third, that is literally it.

2nd: Southampton

Russell Martin does take a while for his teams to get to understanding his methods, but I think the quality in Saints team will get them over the line in their teething period at the start of the season. Realistically, this style of football with the quality of player should get them top 3 minimum. Even if they lose Ward-Prowse and Nathan Tella, they have the money that 20 other teams don’t to go out and get quality replacements. although relegated teams finishing 1st, 2nd and 3rd is very unlikely so this is most likely to be wrong. Go well Saints!

1st: Leeds United

a loooot of people are down on Leeds, some even have them outside the playoffs. But let’s look at it logically, whilst outgoings have been unserious in terms of structure of deals and what not, they’ve signed Ethan Ampadu who’ll be a star at this level, they’ll most likely hang onto Gnonto, Summervile and Sinisterra, they’ve got some great academy players coming through, some of which already have Championship experience from last season and thrived in the league, as well as having a manager who’s got a history of winning the league — I understand the argument against Leeds for sure, but these might end up fielding a midfield and attack of Adams, Ampadu, Gnonto, Summervile, Sinisterra as I mentioned before and possibly a new striker to go with that. That team is mental to me. Yes they might look underprepared now, but they’re still easily good enough to win games in August as they sort themselves out.

Conclusion:

This league isn’t as good as I thought it was going to be in terms of player quality as it currently stands, I think from 19th-5th literally anybody is interchangeable. But on predictions, please don’t get in your feelings about where I’ve put your team, A) because I don’t care and B) I’m always wrong so don’t take it personally — but in case you don’t want to read all of it and scroll to the bottom, I’ll add my predicted league table here: