Middlesbrough vs Southampton. Tactical preview:
System vs players. Who prevails?
Middlesbrough vs Southampton is one of the more interesting match-ups in playoff memory. Mainly because Southampton are the most in-form team in the league over the last 20 games or so, and Boro under Kim Hellberg are number 1 in every single performance metric, but finished 5th. The playoffs aren’t a lottery; usually, the third or fourth get promoted because, well, they’re the better teams. But let’s get into it. I’ve watched multiple games for both teams. This will be a shorter form breakdown because I’ll be honest, long form tactical pieces are boring to read.
Southampton:
Away from home, they’re more than happy to have less of the ball, but be more direct in their approach too. That’s shown in their goal kick set-up. Because Ipswich go man to man all over the pitch centrally, they’ll play short to bait the press in and go long to Larin for A) Azaz to pick up the second ball and play both runners (Fellows and Scienza) through. Or B) Larin flicks it on to one of those runners anyway. Middlesbrough also go man-to-man on goal kicks and wants to press high, especially at home.
In terms of settled possession, Saints use what pretty much everyone else does who’s got ball-dominant tendencies. One full back inverts, winger stays wide, opposite full back stays wide, with the winger on that side staying wide, 10 stays central, and the 9 follows the ball. What’s slightly different for Southampton is that their two defensive midfielders are consistently on the same horizontal line, or slightly staggered. But they do have the freedom to move wide to make a back three in certain situations when the ball is quickly turned over to them.
In the final third, it’s all about getting the ball to Scienza or Fellows to cross into the box where they flood numbers. Scienza can cut inside and get a shot off or cross it back post, or Fellows can do his classic stepover> cross. Their wide pairing of FB and winger are averaging 16 crosses per game.
Out of possession, Southampton used a man-marking system to squeeze the middle of the pitch. It went from a compact 442 press to a diamond press with Azaz pushing alongside Larin and Jander pushing up to put pressure on Matusiwa. Nathan Wood was tasked with following Marcelino Nunez too. However, Ipswich quickly countered this by dropping Matusiwa into the back three, moving Davis inside to drag Fellows with him, and Dan Neil moved diagonally into space to allow the pass into Philogene to be isolated vs Bree. This also stopped Wood from following Nunez as Jander couldn’t break that space, Southampton’s press was confused throughout the game because of it, and it was why, when Jack Clarke came on, he was able to have such an impact. No,w if I apply this defensive press to how I think Boro will set up in possession, and I’m thinking the template they use will be more Blades away in February, the difference being no Hayden Hackney for this leg of course.
Boro:
Following on from above, I don’t like a diamond press because I think it leaves too much space between the single midfielder and his wingers. This is why I think Boro will go back to a variation of their 4-4-2 because the way Hellberg uses McGree, Whittaker and Strelec in recent weeks means they’ll occupy those zones that are left open. Their movement in that area of the pitch is too fluid to be constrained by a diamond press, if that’s what Southampton go for.
To counter that, in recent weeks, Boro’s passing from the back has been sloppy, and they’ve been caught out numerous times looking to overplay. With my idea of Southampton looking to play with less of the ball and perhaps be more direct in their play, using Malanda as a trigger to press would be what I would go for. Not because he’s bad on the ball, it’s one of his strengths, but more because he will try to be too risky at times and force a pass. If you force that decision out of him in split-second timing, because Boro push their players forward, there’s a chance of a quick overload of the defence. Ipswich did exactly that but with a blindside press. They wouldn’t put pressure on him when he had all of the pitch in view, only when his back was turned to any side of the pitch.
There is a move that Boro love to do, and they execute it at least once a game from the build-up. They’ll bring both of their double pivot to the edge of the box, and it’s always right-sided. They want you to press and make them feel boxed in so Brittain can disguise a pass into the middle of the pitch, as they’ve manufactured a scenario where the middle of the pitch is completely vacated an,d McGree will be in there on his own.
I think there’s a common misconception around intent with the way Boro play. They play at a high tempo even if they dominate the ball. A lot of third man runs, a lot of runs forward in general. For example, their opening goal vs Wrexham, from Brynn having the ball in his hands to Conway sticking the ball in the back of the net, required only four passes. They don’t tend to play slowly in the opposition half, and if they do, it’s not by design. It’s more patience and then spring rather than patience all around. In this game, I think the target is the flanks, no pun intended. Conway usually operates on the left, and where the ball is, the overloads are for Boro. I think that could be a huge issue for their full-backs and wingers ahead, because they’re naturally programmed to mark people rather than space.
I think there are two things that perhaps are not highlighted as much in this game and that’s Sol Brynn and his weakness of diving low to his left, and Southampton’s defensive setup from set pieces, in which they consistently lose first contact and concede at the back-post. Starting with the Brynn angle, he’s conceded at least 5 times off the top of my head from being slow to move his feet and get down to save shots that have either gone under his arm or he’s not saved, and it’s not in the corner anyway. Who loves shooting down to his bottom right? Yeah, you guessed it, former Middlesbrough player Finn Azaz. He’s already scored 3 goals this season, aiming in that corner, and he scored 6 last season, too. 17 of his shots have been aimed at that bottom right-hand corner. Regarding Saints, Peretz has conceded 6 goals from 15 shots from corners, and four of the six are in the same area. Looking at their setup now, after they switched from conceding, they’re light on the back-post after being light at the front-post. Could be an area for Dael Fry to exploit if the delivery is a good one.
Prediction.
Southampton on paper should have more than enough to get the job done here. But It’s going to sound mad given the run Saints are on but I think they’ve got game breaking players in a simple tactical framework whereas Boro have a game breaking system with typical top half Championship players outside of a few who are top 3/4 level. Strictly speaking for this leg, and it wouldn’t be any fun if I don’t make a prediction. If Southampton rock up with a diamond press and use that same pressing structure as they did vs Ipswich, I can see Boro scoring 2/3 and winning the game pretty comfortably. Equally I don’t think Southampton won’t score because they have the better players. This is a great case study of does the better coaches team win with lesser players or does the better players just win like they should do. Since both of these head coaches were appointed in November — Boro are 1st for expected points and Southampton are 6th for expected points, but actual points has them flipped. Also helps having two great additions in January in both boxes where Peretz is 1st for goals prevented in that time frame and Larin has the most goals too. But I’m going to stick my neck out on the line and say Boro win 3-1 in the first leg and will defeat the 12:30 curse of every big game ever being boring as sin at midday.