It doesn't need to be this complicated.
Watford 2-1 Hull City review
It’s been a weird first 6 weeks or so of the season. Trying to unpack everything without having prejudged biases will be the aim here. Watching things back and trying to make sense of it all Is the best way to go about this. It’s undeniable that Paulo Pezzolano isn’t a popular man currently. From weird line-ups, to weird tactics and a cautious strategy to go with it. In his defence, no pun intended there; Watford were a bottom 5 team last season defensively, from the numbers to the eye test. I’ve mentioned this on Twitter already but you can clearly see an improvement in that regard, and it shows in the numbers as well. Watford this season are 8th for open play xGA, 7th for open play shot quality conceded and 8th for open play shots conceded too. Going forward is the issue and we’ve got the players to hurt teams far more than we should be currently. To counterbalance the defensive numbers with attacking numbers; Watford are 10th for open play xG, 18th for open play shot quality and third for open play shots taken. Effectively means we’re shooting a lot but the quality of chance we’re shooting with isn’t a good one. Set pieces is where we need to improve, we don’t really create much but we can be vulnerable to that middle zone where players seemingly get free quite a lot. It has improved in the last two games mind you so we’ll see how that goes. If you solely look at the numbers, look at the games and how they’ve played out — every single one of them decided by the one goal or it’s a draw; there’s a lot to work with here. We’re operating at the bare minimum a playoff chasing team if you extrapolate this over a 46 game period. The issue is are we being put in the best possible situation to do this with the squad of players we have? Absolutely not in my eyes. We really should be on at least 12/13 points. But onto the Hull review now.
Line-ups.
Watford: Baxter (GK), Alleyne, Keben, Pollock; Petris, Mendy, Kayembe, Louza, Ngakia; Irankunda, Vivaldo. (352).
Bench: Marriott (GK), Bola, Wiley (62’), Abankwah, Kyprianou (83’), Sissoko (75’), Baah (83’), Vata, Kjerrumgaard (83’).
Hull City: Pandur (GK), Coyle, Egan, Hughes, Giles; Hadziahmetovic, Lundstram; Dramah, Gelhardt, Joseph; McBurnie. (4231)
Bench: Phillips (GK), Famewo, Williams, Slater (73’), Gyabi (73’), Palmer (84’), Akintola (84’), Destan (88’), Millar.
My head was on mars when our line-up dropped. Baah still not playing with Irankunda, our best player so far this season on the bench in Kyprianou, no left back on the pitch, best striker in Kjerrrumgaard on the bench, Pollock left centre back again, no tall Mendy in the squad along with Doumbia and Dwomoh. It was perplexing to me and the win still doesn’t change my thought process as with these players I reckon we beat Hull by more than a 1 goal score line.
First half.
The problem with the back five against Millwall was both wingbacks were defensive minded. Neither of them wanted to get in the box or be punchier in possession. In the opening two minutes vs Hull, Petris was in the box for a cross from Ngakia, that’s the intentions we need to make this system as good as it can be.
Opening 20 minutes Watford were pretty good. Knocking it about nicely down this side with Ngakia, Kayembe and Louza playing one touch football with Irankunda as well getting involved. This is why I urge anyone to watch back games if you can, it’s free on the Watford website if you don’t know. But at the time my biases were already in my head and I’m seeing things from the line-up I didn’t like that probably wasn’t there but to back it up even further; minute 1 to minute 20, Watford had 4 shots to Hull’s 2 (both from set pieces), 67% possession, 45 passes in the final third compared to Hull’s 20, 9 penalty area entries in comparison to Hull’s 4 and carved out two pretty good opportunities in Vivaldo’s blocked shot and the double backheel.
As predictable as Watford are after a good start, we concede from Hull’s first venture forward in numbers. McBurnie showed pretty much the entire game he was the best striker on the pitch and arguably too good for Hull by winning it back, playing it wide and noticing the space for a cutback to finish passed Baxter. When that goal went in — boos rang around the Vicarage Road stadium. Chants of “You’re getting sacked in the morning” coming from the home fans rather than the away. At this point my head was on something more volcanic than Mars. I mentioned in a group chat and on Twitter that from the 20th minute onwards we should have been three down, which is classic fan behaviour btw. You don’t take into consideration the chances your team has and only remember the chances the team you’re up against has and bank on them to score every time. To debunk that from my own mind — McBurnie hit the post but it was from outside the box, doesn’t mean it should go in. Cody Dramah hit one straight at Baxter after Keben slid in front and made it impossible for him to use his foot and put it in the corner, only place it could go was central; was never going in + he is a right back by trade. Kyle Joseph also had a chance which was well saved but the flag went up for offside.
Watford themselves had a better chance than all of them when Vivaldo couldn’t connect cleanly from a Louza free-kick. Any sort of power and It’s a goal. Louza also had a decent opportunity which was blocked by a Hull player after good work from Irankunda. Honestly I can’t reiterate it enough to watch back games, It’s like a totally different world to whatever trance you’re in at the time with a certain mindset. Was it a great Watford first half? not by any means, but it was average and were the better team than Hull. I refer to the numbers once more — Watford xG 1.02, Hull 0.4. Watford penalty area entries 19, Hull 10. Watford passes in threatening areas 104, Hull 69. Every single attacking metric and every single defensive metric is in Watford’s favour apart from what ultimately matters, the scoreline. Hull deserved that lead at half time because they stuck it in the back of the net, but Watford should have scored at least 1 themselves too and certainly not be 3-0 down like I originally thought.
Second half.
Watford switched it up second half — Louza moved higher as a number 10 which *spoiler alert* made the game a more basketball type game. I think it was a clear tactic from Pezzolano to turn the game more chaotic to create chances for ourselves. I don’t know this to be true of course but if you take your best passer from a deep area and move him forward, you’re basically skipping the midfield and going into wide areas or asking the centre backs to find him through the lines which is what happened.
This second half performance is what I want more from us. Getting the ball forward quickly. Getting down the sides, exploiting the space for our forward players to run into. Dominating the ball is cool, control is good but so is chaos when you have the better players. From the moment the second half kicked off we were on it and got the goal Louza deserved in the 60th minute. Don’t make me tap the sign (The numbers sign) — From the 46th minute until the Louza goal; Watford 8 shots, Hull 1. Watford 7 penalty area entries, Hull 2. Watford 49 passes in their opponents half, Hull 34. Outside of one shot from Hull which whistled past the post, Hull have offered absolutely nothing in an attacking sense. There’s no style of play on show from either team and the quality we have is really showing. Pollock hit the bar, Semedo had one off the line, Keben had a header from a corner off the line, Irankunda put one just wide of the post. Louza had a shot blocked after great work from Petris which then lead straight to the corner for Semedo’s goal. When we went 2-1 up; the remainder of the game Hull had 2 shots with 1 of them blocked. This should have been a comfortable Watford win but it wasn’t and I’ll get into that in the conclusion.
Conclusion.
Before the game I highlighed how bad Hull were defensively and It was on show and then some on Saturday. Whilst I mentioned our numbers across the season are in the main pretty good, but they should be better with the fixtures we’ve had. I also don’t really know what style of football we’re meant to be playing. Chaos ball against a horrific defence will always work but the games before hand have been a tough watch. The line-ups are weird, the tactics are weird, the strategy is weird. If he just picked the best players and put them in their most natural positions then we’d look so much more comfortable. The fact Irankunda and Baah haven’t started a game yet together is a war crime in itself. Semedo got the goal, and I’m a bigger fan of him than 99% of the fanbase but K9 is a level above him currently. Doumbia not being in the squad, likewise with Dwomoh. The dropping from the squad entirely of tall Mendy after making his debut as a right wing back whilst being a centre-back; what does that say for man management? The baffling subs, or lack of subs. It feels close to being actually quite good but it also feels even closer for this to blow up. I maintain this squad is capable of challenging playoffs but I’m not entirely sure Pezzolano is the man to do that. We shall see what this week unfolds with games vs Portsmouth away and Oxford at home. 4 points needed at the bare minimum.