Evaluating Watford's start to the season
Are we good, or are we good?
Second international break has just begun and Watford are currently sitting in the final playoff spot in 6th in the Championship. Which if you said to anyone in pre season, you’d have been met with a few laughs and derogatory comments. But the question I’m trying to figure out is, are Watford actually good now? I’ll get to that answer towards the end, but I want to outline what I’ll be covering in said article.
Style of play (in and out of possession)
Deep dive on each unit (Defence, Midfield, Attack)
Underlying numbers
Only three subjects to really cover, but each deserve a lot of focus to gauge where Watford are at in comparison to the rest of the league. I do want to stress that It’s kind of pointless looking at the league table after 9 games. I know the cliché is 10 games, and there’s certainly merit in that, but for me I’m not taking notice until closer to 15/18 games to see how a team is setup and performing.
Style of play
This is one where Cleverely has got his message across really quickly. What he said he wants, the team are doing, especially with his non negotiables. I think he’s adapted to the backline we have, albeit there have been some instances where we have played a really high line (Norwich away) — but what is our structure?
3421 on the ball/532 off the ball
Two DMs look to receive the ball, WBs stay wide, 10s find space on their side of the field
Link up play between 10s and wingbacks to get low crosses into box
Flood the box when in crossing situations
Squeeze the pitch with all 10 outfield players in the opposition half
Starting with the three central defenders who are all excellent box defenders, but there’s variance with how good they are on the ball. Sierralta is very limited, Porteous is serviceable, same with Ogbonna and Morris — Pollock has come on leaps and bounds and is to my eye, you can categorise him as a ball playing defender. With how they’re utilised, Pollock is the one who starts the build from the back and has the responsibility to progress the ball either directly to the striker, into midfield or the most common route, to Andrews or Larouci. Ogbonna coming into the back three has made the world of difference from a calmness pov and how they look together. Despite their effort levels, something just didn’t feel quite right with Morris and Sierralta in that backline. In terms of line height, Watford are mainly in a mid-block, not a compact one mind you (I’ll get into that later), and drop their line to a lower block once pressure hits rather than opting to step up and engage
I want to focus back on Mattie Pollock now and praise him for the central defender he’s turning into. From the dreadful night at Millwall a few years ago, to now being one of the first names on the team sheet and being integral to the way we want to play. I think everyone knew he was a good defender, loved a tackle, loved a header, but I don’t think many would have him improve this much in such a short space of time with how comfortable he is on the ball. He wins 72% of his aerial duels, 63% of his ground duels. According to Fbref, he ranks in the 90th percentile or higher (in comparison to other Championship centre backs) for progressive passes, progressive carries, through balls, interceptions, aerials won, expected assists, through balls, shot creating actions, key passes, crosses, and that’s not including his 80% win rate vs dribblers facing him. A lot of these numbers will be due to role and responsibility but you still have to do these things and execute them. Against Derby he got the assist with a lovely pass into Bayo. Following game he sent Bayo through 1v1 vs Sheffield United with another lovely pass over the top, and vs Sunderland he got into a position again to find Bayo.
As I mentioned earlier, one of TC’s non negotiables was squeezing the pitch and pinning teams in when we have possession, and that means having every outfield player in the final third and looking to sustain pressure until a goal is scored. Watford have done this well this season and It has been a factor in every game we’ve played. However it does sometimes come at a cost when the ball is turned over and one direct ball down the middle can cause panic.
Moving onto the central midfielders, and this is where I have slight concern. But first I think it’s fair to contextualise their roles within the team and what they’re (Tom Dele-Bashiru and Moussa Sissoko) being asked to do. In possession, both of them close the gap between eachother and look to receive off the centre backs, mainly Tom Dele as he’s the ball player between the two. He dominates touches and passes received and played out of him and Sissoko, and understandably so. Off the ball, TDB is asked to press the right back with Sissoko backing him up so there isn’t space for the spare midfielder to drop in, but the issue here is, frequently Sissoko isn’t ready to close that gap and there’s huge gaps in the middle of the pitch, and sometimes the distance between back three and middle two is genuinely 15/20 yards and I think that’s more on Sissoko than anyone, although I do think Kayembe is a ball watcher too. In fairness to TC, our midfield of Kayembe, TDB and Sissoko are quite similar in skillset in that they’re good at driving with the ball and ok at everything else. The two in the middle probably have the hardest job out of any in the team as they have to cover a lot of ground, and I’m not sure it’s viable. Out of all the double pivots in the league, Watford rank 21st for ground duels per 90 (possession adjusted) but both of them rank highly for winning %, which mirrors the eye test, but it also mirrors the eye test in that they don’t actually do much defensive work anyway, especially Kayembe and Sissoko. It seems like I’m grilling Sissoko but I’m not, I think the pressing structure puts a lot of responsibility and he’s not able to produce it consistently. In the first game vs Millwall it was evident too; lazy tracking back and not being able to close down with TDB.
I think another issue we have is we don’t have a midfielder (Dwomoh permitted) that has defensive awareness or instincts. Consistently in every game this season, a player has been able to drift in behind one of them and able to create good chances off the back of essentially ball watching. As good as both of them can be on their day, the system can crumble if one of them are out of position, and I think that plays a part into why our open play defensive numbers are amongst the worst in the league, but again, I think there’s reasons for that and why those bad numbers don’t tally with the eye test.
Cleverley has referenced Xabi Alonso’s Bayer Leverkusen and Antonio Conte’s Chelsea as inspiration for how he uses his wingbacks. Wants them to effectively be creative outlets and goal scorers. Stay high and wide, link with the 10s and flood the box to get shots off. So far this season it’s worked very well. Larouci has assisted Ebosele and Andrews, Sema has assisted Andrews too. I think the beauty of these wingbacks is they’re all different and allowed to be but with the end goal of getting into the box. So for example, Andrews cuts inside a lot whereas Ebosele is very direct and looks to go on the outside almost every time. Larouci is all action crosses, shots, dribbles. We’re a team that’s allowed to express themselves and we can be electric at times. With how Watford build, it’s from centre back and both DMs as I said, looking to receive and closing the distance between them, to lure in the opposition press and then quickly hit the wingbacks. The issues this season have been the positioning of them when the ball gets turned over, they’re often too high and that means a complete overload can come to fruition and the back three are often vs 4/5 players running at them. However, Cleverley has noticed this and we have dropped them back 5/10 yards after Norwich and Coventry targeted that space not just repeatedly but religiously.
Giorgi is the star of this team. Bundles of energy, high level dribbling, carrying and body positioning to bounce off players in tight spaces. Highly creative, and I disagree his final ball needs working on, he’s created the most chances from open play in the division whilst being slightly handicapped with not having a consistent number 9 or a 10 next to him performance wise. The one flaw to his game is goal scoring, he does need to shoot more and be more arrogant and ruthless in front of goal, which you can’t just suddenly do, but it can be worked on obviously. Given how good he is, he’s the only player in the team that’s given a license to go wherever he wants. On paper he’s a left sided 10, but he goes to the right, drops into defensive midfield, moves central in the 9 position. That’s the one thing I love about Cleverley, he has a frame work and tactical instruction, but he absolutely lets players express themselves however way they want to in a positive manner. With how Watford get him into the game most effectively, it’s similar to what Tony Mowbray did with Jack Clarke. Focus the attack down the right and move the opposition over and then quickly move the ball to the left side where Giorgi can pick the ball up and drive at the defence. Kayembe on the other side is a real conundrum rather than an enigma, because we know what he is. The question comes because on the whole, his general play is quite poor but he gets shots off, very powerful ones and the strike is almost always clean. However whilst I or some of our fans might be confused as to why he consistently gets picked, it’s important to know that coaching staff have far more information than us. Kayembe brings a certain level of performance for what the coach wants him to do. He’s a second striker but drops into midfield without the ball. If Cleverley wants his other 10 to be the goal scorer, to take shots off and be another body in the midfield, then he’s getting that. The problem comes when Kayembe isn’t scoring, what is he offering? That’s where I want to see Vata in the side, but then I also understand why he’s not been sent straight into the deep end, albeit I think he’ll be able to swim comfortably given what we’ve seen so far. I maintain he’s a superstar in the making for us and it’s only a matter of time before he’s in the side and starting games.
The final position to look at is the #9. I find this a tough one to properly analyse because it’s evidently a problem position for us but also two guys are in this pecking order that haven’t really been given a chance to succeed yet even though one of them (Jebbison) has only started two games — against two favourites to challenge for automatic promotion, and both of those games were difficult to really judge someone. In my opinion I think it’s far too early to write someone off of the back off two starts against high level opposition where the team was setup in a certain way. Yes he needs to show more but when did we as fans start thinking like Gino Pozzo where patience isn’t a thing? You can’t be mad at the owner and think like him as well, it doesn’t add up. I’m going to touch on Mileta Rajovic as well because I find the conversation around him painful too. 99% of the discourse last season was how bad he was despite scoring goals. Ismael didn’t rate him, Cleverley didn’t rate him, isn’t that what we wanted? The coach to have a say in the market? Bayo isn’t good enough, Rajovic isn’t good enough, Jebbison isn’t ours and Baah is showing a lot of promise but is yet to be seen if he becomes that 9 or plays off the striker. Watford only having Doumbia and Baah as options on perm contracts, is a huge positive next season. Now that rant is out the way — the utilisation of the 9 is more to run channels, link play, make it stick and run on the last shoulder of the defender. In pre season Cleverley said the striker in this system won’t be the main goal scorer, which is true, but we have created great opportunity regardless, especially with balls through or cut backs into the box. Me personally I would look to try and get Jebbison firing over Bayo, but I can understand why Cleverley may opt for Bayo for the time being given he’s shown the most from an all round package despite his obvious lack of shooting ability. A wildcard option to play here would be Rocco Vata and use him as a false 9 effectively and have Baah and Giorgi rotating with him so it’s fluid. Rocco has shown he is great at getting shots off, intense in everything he does and can get into good positions to score. He might not have the physicality that Tom likes, but he can make it stick with his technical ability and sustain pressure that way. I think this kid is too good to have on the bench.
Watford’s underlying numbers in the Championship:
Expected goals: 6th
Expected goals against: 21st
Non penalty expected goals: 6th
Non penalty expected goals against: 24th
Open play expected goals: 4th
Open play expected goals against: 20th
Set piece expected goals: 19th
Set piece expected goals against: 24th
So on the face of it, looking solely at those numbers, Watford are projecting as a middle-ish table team, which is plausible. Watching us and applying the context that we’re more or less the worst defensive team in the league doesn’t really match with what I see. I don’t think we’re great by any means, but I do think we’re average at the very least, and that our defensive metrics maybe boosted through moments of madness rather than being an outright bad defensive team. I can’t question the mentality of this team as we’ve come from behind multiple times this season, but I do think there’s an element of Ange’s Spurs about us. When we go ahead or the game is 0-0, we get into a flow state and there’s large sways of control, but the moment it goes wrong, more often than not, it turns into chaos and we don’t deal with adversity that well. If you think back to the first game of the season vs Millwall there’s multiple instances. Watford had complete control in 37/45 minutes of the first half but on the 37th minute, at 1-0 Ngakia has a shot from a stupid angle and Millwall counter from that and create two chances worth 0.46 xG. In the second half, nothing was happening, Watford get a second and again seem in control but an individual mistake from Porteous and Andrews under no pressure gives Millwall a lifeline back into the game (0.18 xG), and then Millwall get an equaliser 10 minutes later through a Sierralta error (0.12 xG). We have a tendency to concede 1 then concede another within a 10 minute time frame. Think Norwich, Preston, Millwall, Sheffield United missed a pen, Coventry had glorious chances straight after they took the lead. Watford’s open play xGA is 10.3, one of the worst in the league but I reckon you could honestly take at least 2xG off of that, maybe more due to recklessness of player decision making rather than the team actively being bad defensively. I think Cleverley did get a few tactical tweaks wrong with having the wingbacks so high and wide as I’ve said. I think if Watford continue to create the chances we do every game and the personnel come back from injury and we actually have a settled backline, you’ll see quite a big improvement in chances conceded. We’ve chopped and changed between Pollock left or right, Porteous left or right, Ogbonna has only started three league games, Morris and Sierralta have also started a fair few, and Bachmann has been injured since Norwich away. Our defending on set pieces does have to get better though, I won’t deny that. Neither of our keepers are comfortable in crossing situations, so the solution to me would be to put Pollock, Ogbonna, Sissoko and another tall player in front of the keeper so he doesn’t have to come for it and can be ready on his goal line. To conclude, I think Watford are on the right path with a coach who’s clearly got the players on the side and playing an exciting brand of football. The biggest compliment I can give to Tom is he’s got me looking forward to watching us play. Whether we can maintain playoff level results remains to be seen, it would take one of the strikers to up their game and the rotational players to step up in the midweek games, but I have no qualms about the performance levels bar a few, as on the whole nobody has played consistently badly, which to me is the sign of a team that are headed in the right direction.