Are The Championship Play-Offs really a lottery?
A Lottery: A drawing of lots in which prizes are distributed to the winners among persons buying a chance. An event or affair whose outcome is or seems to be determined by chance.
It’s that time of the year again, the EFL play-offs are upon us, and that means every possible football cliché will be said one way or another. One that get’s almost unanimously said whether that be in the studio or on commentary, is the play-offs are a lottery. But are they really? the short answer is no. Throughout history you could make that argument, but comparing football with VAR or modern football to early 90s EFL with the various rule changes seem redundant to me, although there is one stat that is universal which I think is helpful, and that’s form. So the conclusion I’ve come to is to use the last 10 seasons in the Championship. The idea behind a lottery is that everyone has a fair chance, anyone can win it on their day and it’s hard to call. There is an element of all three of those being somewhat true, but it’s true in the sense that anyone can win the Premier League because Leicester City did it that one time.
The team with the worst form:
If you go back as far as the 1992/1993 season to now, the team most out of sorts in the last 10 match days has only been promoted three times, the last team being Swansea in the 2010/11 season, and the other two being Derby in 2006/2007 and Crystal Palace in the 1996/1997 season. So there’s thirty years of evidence to suggest that the side in the worst form heading into the playoffs has a 10% chance of getting promoted. In the last 10 years, only one team with the worst form has made it to the final, and that was Swansea City under Steve Cooper in the 2021/2022 season.
Sixth place:
The last time a team that finished 6th got promoted was Blackpool in 2007, and that was because they were in the second best form out of anyone in the league at the time going into the business end of the season. Again in the last 10 years, only two teams have got to a final, Sheffield Wednesday/Derby and neither got promoted. Finishing 6th is a weird position because it’s an inconsistent team for the most part, with not much difference between them and a 10th placed team, which is why a side finishing here rarely gets promoted. 20% chance of getting to a final, 0% chance of promotion.
Fifth place:
Only two teams in the last 10 years have been promoted finishing 5th. Aston Villa, who were the form team, and Crystal Palace, who were up against Watford and Brighton, two teams who had mid-table form heading into the playoff stage, in fact every team in the playoffs in the 2012/2013 season were in pretty sketchy form. No team breaking the 1.7 points per game barrier. 20% chance of getting to a final, 20% chance of promotion.
Fourth place:
8 of the last 10 seasons, a team in 4th has made the playoff final, which isn’t surprising given the team in 4th place is usually in good enough form and consistent for the majority of the season. However only four of those eight teams have been promoted. 80% chance of getting to the final, 40% chance of promotion.
Third place:
Like 4th place, 8 of the last 10 seasons, a team in 3rd has made the playoff final, and again like 4th place, four have been promoted. It’s not a secret that the higher you are in the league, the better your team is, and the better chance you have of promotion. 80% chance of getting to the final, 40% chance of promotion.
The form team:
As well as it being a lottery, another line that’s treaded out is, the formula of how to get promoted. Time your run, and have the momentum in your favour in the playoffs. But is that true? Well yeah, kind of. In the last five years, it’s been more apparent, with the form team winning the playoff final four times. The team to buck that trend what Scott Parker’s Fulham.. obviously. Prior to the 17/18 season, only once has the form team been promoted, and that was Norwich against Middlesbrough in the 14/15 season. Why is this? it’s hard to nail down a specific reason, as the form team prior to the 2012/2013 season, 20 seasons to be exact, 9 of the form teams were promoted. As I said earlier, the team in 3rd or 4th get promoted far more than any other side mainly because they have more often than not, better players and better form than 5th and 6th place. For example, out of the last 30 years, 26 of those, the best or second best form team have made the final.
Conclusion:
The playoffs isn’t a lottery, not everyone has a fair chance. The better teams more often than not get promoted. That’s not to say a team in 6th place won’t get promoted again in the near future, or a team who’s bottom of the form table. But it’s just common sense to think it’s not a lottery given the quality difference between sides in the playoffs.
Out of form team promotion hopes in the last 30 years: 10%
Out of form team promotion hopes in the last 10 years: 0%
In form team promotion hopes in the last 30 years: 40%
In form team promotion hopes in the last 10 years: 50%
